Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which project Madrid's highest temperature on April 5 at 24-27°C amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Iberia, fostering subsidence and sunnier skies conducive to warming. The near-tie between 24°C and 26°C at 26.5% implied probability stems from model spread: some ensemble members show moderated peaks due to lingering northern airflow or partial cloudiness, while others indicate fuller ridging for stronger heating above climatological April norms of 17-19°C. AEMET's seasonal outlook supports above-average spring warmth, but daily updates from new model runs—expected through April 4—could refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution based on official Barajas Airport observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Madrid on April 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 5?
24°C 27%
26°C 27%
25°C 18%
27°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
12%
24°C
27%
25°C
18%
26°C
27%
27°C
13%
28°C
5%
29°C or higher
3%
24°C 27%
26°C 27%
25°C 18%
27°C 13%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
19°C or below
$482 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$354 Vol.
1%
21°C
$325 Vol.
2%
22°C
$426 Vol.
4%
23°C
$433 Vol.
12%
24°C
$489 Vol.
27%
25°C
$429 Vol.
18%
26°C
$540 Vol.
27%
27°C
$374 Vol.
13%
28°C
$373 Vol.
5%
29°C or higher
$562 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which project Madrid's highest temperature on April 5 at 24-27°C amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Iberia, fostering subsidence and sunnier skies conducive to warming. The near-tie between 24°C and 26°C at 26.5% implied probability stems from model spread: some ensemble members show moderated peaks due to lingering northern airflow or partial cloudiness, while others indicate fuller ridging for stronger heating above climatological April norms of 17-19°C. AEMET's seasonal outlook supports above-average spring warmth, but daily updates from new model runs—expected through April 4—could refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution based on official Barajas Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:47 AM ET
音量
$4,788終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:47 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which project Madrid's highest temperature on April 5 at 24-27°C amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Iberia, fostering subsidence and sunnier skies conducive to warming. The near-tie between 24°C and 26°C at 26.5% implied probability stems from model spread: some ensemble members show moderated peaks due to lingering northern airflow or partial cloudiness, while others indicate fuller ridging for stronger heating above climatological April norms of 17-19°C. AEMET's seasonal outlook supports above-average spring warmth, but daily updates from new model runs—expected through April 4—could refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution based on official Barajas Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$4,788終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:47 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight clustering in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which project Madrid's highest temperature on April 5 at 24-27°C amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Iberia, fostering subsidence and sunnier skies conducive to warming. The near-tie between 24°C and 26°C at 26.5% implied probability stems from model spread: some ensemble members show moderated peaks due to lingering northern airflow or partial cloudiness, while others indicate fuller ridging for stronger heating above climatological April norms of 17-19°C. AEMET's seasonal outlook supports above-average spring warmth, but daily updates from new model runs—expected through April 4—could refine this uncertainty ahead of resolution based on official Barajas Airport observations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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