Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C or higher in Paris on April 4, driven by the latest Météo-France and ECMWF model runs forecasting mild conditions under a persistent high-pressure ridge over western Europe. Southerly winds and partial clearing skies are expected to push daytime highs to 17-19°C, 2-3°C above the early-April climatological average of 14-15°C at Paris-Montsouris station. Recent overnight updates from GFS and European models reduced morning cloud and rain risks noted in prior runs, boosting confidence in the warmer outcome while 16°C holds 17.5% as a conservative alternative. Inherent forecast uncertainty remains, with final resolution tied to official hourly observations; watch Météo-France bulletins for any late shifts in boundary layer mixing or insolation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Paris on April 4?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 4?
17°C or higher 79%
16°C 16%
15°C 3.3%
14°C 2.0%
$22,347 Vol.
$22,347 Vol.
2026/04/04
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
3%
16°C
16%
17°C or higher
79%
17°C or higher 79%
16°C 16%
15°C 3.3%
14°C 2.0%
$22,347 Vol.
$22,347 Vol.
2026/04/04
7°C or below
$1,825 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,304 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,541 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,819 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,254 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,533 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$2,289 Vol.
1%
14°C
$2,325 Vol.
2%
15°C
$1,874 Vol.
3%
16°C
$2,483 Vol.
16%
17°C or higher
$4,206 Vol.
79%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C or higher in Paris on April 4, driven by the latest Météo-France and ECMWF model runs forecasting mild conditions under a persistent high-pressure ridge over western Europe. Southerly winds and partial clearing skies are expected to push daytime highs to 17-19°C, 2-3°C above the early-April climatological average of 14-15°C at Paris-Montsouris station. Recent overnight updates from GFS and European models reduced morning cloud and rain risks noted in prior runs, boosting confidence in the warmer outcome while 16°C holds 17.5% as a conservative alternative. Inherent forecast uncertainty remains, with final resolution tied to official hourly observations; watch Météo-France bulletins for any late shifts in boundary layer mixing or insolation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
音量
$22,347終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:33 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C or higher in Paris on April 4, driven by the latest Météo-France and ECMWF model runs forecasting mild conditions under a persistent high-pressure ridge over western Europe. Southerly winds and partial clearing skies are expected to push daytime highs to 17-19°C, 2-3°C above the early-April climatological average of 14-15°C at Paris-Montsouris station. Recent overnight updates from GFS and European models reduced morning cloud and rain risks noted in prior runs, boosting confidence in the warmer outcome while 16°C holds 17.5% as a conservative alternative. Inherent forecast uncertainty remains, with final resolution tied to official hourly observations; watch Météo-France bulletins for any late shifts in boundary layer mixing or insolation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$22,347終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:33 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C or higher in Paris on April 4, driven by the latest Météo-France and ECMWF model runs forecasting mild conditions under a persistent high-pressure ridge over western Europe. Southerly winds and partial clearing skies are expected to push daytime highs to 17-19°C, 2-3°C above the early-April climatological average of 14-15°C at Paris-Montsouris station. Recent overnight updates from GFS and European models reduced morning cloud and rain risks noted in prior runs, boosting confidence in the warmer outcome while 16°C holds 17.5% as a conservative alternative. Inherent forecast uncertainty remains, with final resolution tied to official hourly observations; watch Météo-France bulletins for any late shifts in boundary layer mixing or insolation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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