Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Wuhan's highest temperature at Tianhe International Airport on April 7, with implied probabilities split evenly at 50% for 21°C or below versus 31°C or higher, and mid-range outcomes like 25–30°C hovering at 45–48.5%. Recent China Meteorological Administration bulletins show persistent overcast skies and light showers through April 2–3, capping highs at 20–22°C amid cool northerly flows and high cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Differentiating factors include potential high-pressure ridge buildup for subsidence warming versus incoming fronts maintaining stratus; historical early-April averages hover near 21°C, but current model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS analogs suggest 24–25°C peaks if skies clear. Key updates from CMA daily advisories expected by April 5 could sharpen the outlook.