Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 24–26°C for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on April 17, reflecting the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs from GFS and ECMWF showing peaks near 25°C under a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge. This setup promotes diurnal heating with light northerly winds, slightly above the mid-April climatological average of 21–22°C, though urban heat island effects at Ezeiza Airport—the likely resolution station—could nudge readings higher. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud development timing and potential sea breeze onset, which model spreads highlight as key uncertainties capable of varying outcomes by 1–2°C; SMN hourly updates expected overnight will sharpen implied probabilities before observations finalize tomorrow evening.