Trader consensus on Polymarket favors more than nine magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19 at 36.5% implied probability, closely tracking the U.S. Geological Survey's long-term global average of approximately nine to ten such events per week, derived from over two decades of comprehensive seismic catalog data spanning tectonic plate boundaries. This Poisson-distributed baseline, with no unusual swarms, aftershock sequences, or quiet periods reported in the past 48 hours by USGS monitoring, positions 8 (15.5%) and 9 (14.5%) as strong contenders amid inherent forecasting uncertainty from random seismic releases. Recent Nevada M5.5 event fits normal variability; traders await real-time USGS updates through April 19 for potential shifts in daily rates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4월 13일 ~ 4월 19일 중 지진이 5.5회 이상인 경우는 몇 건인가요?
4월 13일 ~ 4월 19일 중 지진이 5.5회 이상인 경우는 몇 건인가요?
>9 36%
8 17%
9 17%
7 11%
$111,332 거래량
$111,332 거래량
2026.04.19
≤3
<1%
4
2%
5
7%
6
10%
7
11%
8
17%
9
17%
>9
36%
>9 36%
8 17%
9 17%
7 11%
$111,332 거래량
$111,332 거래량
2026.04.19
≤3
$72,504 거래량
<1%
4
$7,418 거래량
2%
5
$3,120 거래량
7%
6
$1,374 거래량
10%
7
$1,967 거래량
11%
8
$2,838 거래량
17%
9
$1,722 거래량
17%
>9
$20,535 거래량
36%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors more than nine magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19 at 36.5% implied probability, closely tracking the U.S. Geological Survey's long-term global average of approximately nine to ten such events per week, derived from over two decades of comprehensive seismic catalog data spanning tectonic plate boundaries. This Poisson-distributed baseline, with no unusual swarms, aftershock sequences, or quiet periods reported in the past 48 hours by USGS monitoring, positions 8 (15.5%) and 9 (14.5%) as strong contenders amid inherent forecasting uncertainty from random seismic releases. Recent Nevada M5.5 event fits normal variability; traders await real-time USGS updates through April 19 for potential shifts in daily rates.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
거래량
$111,332종료일
2026.04.19마켓 개설일
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors more than nine magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19 at 36.5% implied probability, closely tracking the U.S. Geological Survey's long-term global average of approximately nine to ten such events per week, derived from over two decades of comprehensive seismic catalog data spanning tectonic plate boundaries. This Poisson-distributed baseline, with no unusual swarms, aftershock sequences, or quiet periods reported in the past 48 hours by USGS monitoring, positions 8 (15.5%) and 9 (14.5%) as strong contenders amid inherent forecasting uncertainty from random seismic releases. Recent Nevada M5.5 event fits normal variability; traders await real-time USGS updates through April 19 for potential shifts in daily rates.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$111,332종료일
2026.04.19마켓 개설일
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors more than nine magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19 at 36.5% implied probability, closely tracking the U.S. Geological Survey's long-term global average of approximately nine to ten such events per week, derived from over two decades of comprehensive seismic catalog data spanning tectonic plate boundaries. This Poisson-distributed baseline, with no unusual swarms, aftershock sequences, or quiet periods reported in the past 48 hours by USGS monitoring, positions 8 (15.5%) and 9 (14.5%) as strong contenders amid inherent forecasting uncertainty from random seismic releases. Recent Nevada M5.5 event fits normal variability; traders await real-time USGS updates through April 19 for potential shifts in daily rates.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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