Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 11–13 (27.5%) and 14–16 (27.5%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, reflecting four confirmed events so far per USGS seismic catalog—Malaysia M7.0 on February 22, Tonga M7.5 on March 24, Vanuatu M7.3 on March 30, and Indonesia M7.4 on April 1—aligning with the long-term global average of about 16 M7+ quakes annually from plate boundary slip along subduction zones and transform faults. This recent Pacific cluster in under two weeks has nudged sentiment toward higher bins, but inherent Poisson-distributed variability and lack of predictable global upticks keep lower totals viable, with ongoing USGS monitoring of seismic swarms and aftershock sequences through year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트11~13 28%
14–16 28%
17~19 22%
20회 이상 14.3%
$1,233,081 거래량
$1,233,081 거래량
2026.12.31
5회 미만
<1%
5~7
1%
8–10
7%
11~13
28%
14–16
28%
17~19
22%
20회 이상
14%
11~13 28%
14–16 28%
17~19 22%
20회 이상 14.3%
$1,233,081 거래량
$1,233,081 거래량
2026.12.31
5회 미만
$200,798 거래량
<1%
5~7
$67,370 거래량
1%
8–10
$123,952 거래량
7%
11~13
$404,068 거래량
28%
14–16
$177,174 거래량
28%
17~19
$202,169 거래량
22%
20회 이상
$57,550 거래량
14%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 11–13 (27.5%) and 14–16 (27.5%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, reflecting four confirmed events so far per USGS seismic catalog—Malaysia M7.0 on February 22, Tonga M7.5 on March 24, Vanuatu M7.3 on March 30, and Indonesia M7.4 on April 1—aligning with the long-term global average of about 16 M7+ quakes annually from plate boundary slip along subduction zones and transform faults. This recent Pacific cluster in under two weeks has nudged sentiment toward higher bins, but inherent Poisson-distributed variability and lack of predictable global upticks keep lower totals viable, with ongoing USGS monitoring of seismic swarms and aftershock sequences through year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
거래량
$1,233,081종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 11–13 (27.5%) and 14–16 (27.5%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, reflecting four confirmed events so far per USGS seismic catalog—Malaysia M7.0 on February 22, Tonga M7.5 on March 24, Vanuatu M7.3 on March 30, and Indonesia M7.4 on April 1—aligning with the long-term global average of about 16 M7+ quakes annually from plate boundary slip along subduction zones and transform faults. This recent Pacific cluster in under two weeks has nudged sentiment toward higher bins, but inherent Poisson-distributed variability and lack of predictable global upticks keep lower totals viable, with ongoing USGS monitoring of seismic swarms and aftershock sequences through year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
거래량
$1,233,081종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 11–13 (27.5%) and 14–16 (27.5%) magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026, reflecting four confirmed events so far per USGS seismic catalog—Malaysia M7.0 on February 22, Tonga M7.5 on March 24, Vanuatu M7.3 on March 30, and Indonesia M7.4 on April 1—aligning with the long-term global average of about 16 M7+ quakes annually from plate boundary slip along subduction zones and transform faults. This recent Pacific cluster in under two weeks has nudged sentiment toward higher bins, but inherent Poisson-distributed variability and lack of predictable global upticks keep lower totals viable, with ongoing USGS monitoring of seismic swarms and aftershock sequences through year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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