Trader consensus favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI ≥4, ejecting at least 0.1 km³ of tephra) in 2026 at 52.5% market-implied probability, driven by Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data showing 47 confirmed eruptions year-to-date through mid-April—all VEI <4 amid routine alert levels from USGS and international observatories. This subdued activity contrasts with the historical baseline of roughly 2-3 VEI ≥4 events annually, reflecting no precursory seismic swarms, deformation, or gas emissions signaling imminent large explosions at high-risk sites like Hekla or Semeru. Ongoing effusive episodes at Kīlauea underscore persistent but low-intensity volcanism. Weekly GVP/USGS reports will be pivotal for detecting unrest shifts, with probabilities for one eruption (35.5%) hinging on late-year developments amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0 53%
1 36%
2 5.8%
3 1.8%
$992,972 거래량
$992,972 거래량
2026.12.31
0
53%
1
36%
2
6%
3
2%
4
<1%
5회 이상
1%
0 53%
1 36%
2 5.8%
3 1.8%
$992,972 거래량
$992,972 거래량
2026.12.31
0
$446,751 거래량
53%
1
$249,985 거래량
36%
2
$21,796 거래량
6%
3
$15,221 거래량
2%
4
$15,476 거래량
<1%
5회 이상
$243,743 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI ≥4, ejecting at least 0.1 km³ of tephra) in 2026 at 52.5% market-implied probability, driven by Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data showing 47 confirmed eruptions year-to-date through mid-April—all VEI <4 amid routine alert levels from USGS and international observatories. This subdued activity contrasts with the historical baseline of roughly 2-3 VEI ≥4 events annually, reflecting no precursory seismic swarms, deformation, or gas emissions signaling imminent large explosions at high-risk sites like Hekla or Semeru. Ongoing effusive episodes at Kīlauea underscore persistent but low-intensity volcanism. Weekly GVP/USGS reports will be pivotal for detecting unrest shifts, with probabilities for one eruption (35.5%) hinging on late-year developments amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
거래량
$992,972종료일
2027.03.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI ≥4, ejecting at least 0.1 km³ of tephra) in 2026 at 52.5% market-implied probability, driven by Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data showing 47 confirmed eruptions year-to-date through mid-April—all VEI <4 amid routine alert levels from USGS and international observatories. This subdued activity contrasts with the historical baseline of roughly 2-3 VEI ≥4 events annually, reflecting no precursory seismic swarms, deformation, or gas emissions signaling imminent large explosions at high-risk sites like Hekla or Semeru. Ongoing effusive episodes at Kīlauea underscore persistent but low-intensity volcanism. Weekly GVP/USGS reports will be pivotal for detecting unrest shifts, with probabilities for one eruption (35.5%) hinging on late-year developments amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
거래량
$992,972종료일
2027.03.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI ≥4, ejecting at least 0.1 km³ of tephra) in 2026 at 52.5% market-implied probability, driven by Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data showing 47 confirmed eruptions year-to-date through mid-April—all VEI <4 amid routine alert levels from USGS and international observatories. This subdued activity contrasts with the historical baseline of roughly 2-3 VEI ≥4 events annually, reflecting no precursory seismic swarms, deformation, or gas emissions signaling imminent large explosions at high-risk sites like Hekla or Semeru. Ongoing effusive episodes at Kīlauea underscore persistent but low-intensity volcanism. Weekly GVP/USGS reports will be pivotal for detecting unrest shifts, with probabilities for one eruption (35.5%) hinging on late-year developments amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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