Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global surface air temperature record—likely held by July 2024 per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by ongoing anthropogenic warming and a forecasted El Niño emergence. Recent Copernicus reports confirm January through March 2026 ranked as the fourth- or fifth-warmest on record for those months, with anomalies 0.51–0.53°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, extending 2025's streak as the third-hottest year. NOAA's latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion indicates a 61% chance of El Niño by May–July, persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies peak summer temperatures amid baseline anomalies exceeding 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels. Upcoming seasonal forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF could refine intensification risks, though model ensembles acknowledge ENSO uncertainty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$119,620 거래량
$119,620 거래량
2027.01.10
예
$119,620 거래량
$119,620 거래량
2027.01.10
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global surface air temperature record—likely held by July 2024 per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by ongoing anthropogenic warming and a forecasted El Niño emergence. Recent Copernicus reports confirm January through March 2026 ranked as the fourth- or fifth-warmest on record for those months, with anomalies 0.51–0.53°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, extending 2025's streak as the third-hottest year. NOAA's latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion indicates a 61% chance of El Niño by May–July, persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies peak summer temperatures amid baseline anomalies exceeding 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels. Upcoming seasonal forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF could refine intensification risks, though model ensembles acknowledge ENSO uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
마켓 개설일: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
거래량
$119,620종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global surface air temperature record—likely held by July 2024 per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by ongoing anthropogenic warming and a forecasted El Niño emergence. Recent Copernicus reports confirm January through March 2026 ranked as the fourth- or fifth-warmest on record for those months, with anomalies 0.51–0.53°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, extending 2025's streak as the third-hottest year. NOAA's latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion indicates a 61% chance of El Niño by May–July, persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies peak summer temperatures amid baseline anomalies exceeding 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels. Upcoming seasonal forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF could refine intensification risks, though model ensembles acknowledge ENSO uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
거래량
$119,620종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global surface air temperature record—likely held by July 2024 per Copernicus ERA5 data—driven by ongoing anthropogenic warming and a forecasted El Niño emergence. Recent Copernicus reports confirm January through March 2026 ranked as the fourth- or fifth-warmest on record for those months, with anomalies 0.51–0.53°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, extending 2025's streak as the third-hottest year. NOAA's latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion indicates a 61% chance of El Niño by May–July, persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies peak summer temperatures amid baseline anomalies exceeding 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels. Upcoming seasonal forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF could refine intensification risks, though model ensembles acknowledge ENSO uncertainty.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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