Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, updated within the past 24 hours, center Ankara's highest temperature on March 26 at 12-14°C, fueling trader consensus with 13°C leading at 33.5% implied probability. These closely matched odds reflect model spread driven by uncertainty in shortwave ridging over central Anatolia, which could boost highs to 14°C under clearer skies, versus lingering low-level clouds from a weakening Black Sea front capping at 12°C. Historical March data from Turkish meteorological records show average peaks of 13.2°C, but current geopotential height anomalies favor mild advection, differentiating outcomes amid typical diurnal variability of ±1-2°C. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z runs for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
13°C 31%
14°C 25%
12°C 21%
11°C 12%
$10,947 Vol.
$10,947 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
12%
12°C
21%
13°C
31%
14°C
25%
15°C
5%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 31%
14°C 25%
12°C 21%
11°C 12%
$10,947 Vol.
$10,947 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
12%
12°C
21%
13°C
31%
14°C
25%
15°C
5%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, updated within the past 24 hours, center Ankara's highest temperature on March 26 at 12-14°C, fueling trader consensus with 13°C leading at 33.5% implied probability. These closely matched odds reflect model spread driven by uncertainty in shortwave ridging over central Anatolia, which could boost highs to 14°C under clearer skies, versus lingering low-level clouds from a weakening Black Sea front capping at 12°C. Historical March data from Turkish meteorological records show average peaks of 13.2°C, but current geopotential height anomalies favor mild advection, differentiating outcomes amid typical diurnal variability of ±1-2°C. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z runs for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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