Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ankara's highest temperature on March 27 clustering tightly around 15–17°C, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs in this narrow band amid a transitional spring air mass. The Turkish State Meteorological Service aligns with a 16°C peak under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, boosting its 29.5% implied probability, while subtle model divergences—slight increases in cloud cover favor 15°C (24.5%) and clearer conditions push toward 17°C (27.0%). Historical March 27 averages hover near 13°C, but above-normal geopotential heights this week differentiate these outcomes from cooler tails like 14°C or below, with low odds reflecting ensemble consensus and minimal cold air intrusion risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Ancara em 27 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Ancara em 27 de março?
16°C 31%
17°C 26%
15°C 25%
18°C 12%
11°C ou menos
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
11%
15°C
25%
16°C
31%
17°C
26%
18°C
12%
19°C
4%
20°C
5%
21°C ou mais
1%
16°C 31%
17°C 26%
15°C 25%
18°C 12%
11°C ou menos
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
11%
15°C
25%
16°C
31%
17°C
26%
18°C
12%
19°C
4%
20°C
5%
21°C ou mais
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ankara's highest temperature on March 27 clustering tightly around 15–17°C, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs in this narrow band amid a transitional spring air mass. The Turkish State Meteorological Service aligns with a 16°C peak under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, boosting its 29.5% implied probability, while subtle model divergences—slight increases in cloud cover favor 15°C (24.5%) and clearer conditions push toward 17°C (27.0%). Historical March 27 averages hover near 13°C, but above-normal geopotential heights this week differentiate these outcomes from cooler tails like 14°C or below, with low odds reflecting ensemble consensus and minimal cold air intrusion risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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