Trader consensus clusters around 84-93°F for Austin's March 27 high, reflecting NOAA ensemble forecasts peaking at 86-89°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas, fostering subsidence and clear skies for efficient daytime heating. Southerly winds advecting moist Gulf air have boosted dewpoints to the 60s°F, enhancing instability but models predict minimal convection, favoring hotter outcomes over cooler bins. Differentiators include ECMWF's warmer bias versus GFS cooling hints from possible mid-afternoon clouds, plus Austin's urban heat island adding 1-2°F to rural sensor readings at official stations like Camp Mabry. Historical March norms near 76°F underscore this +10-15°F anomaly from persistent warm advection, with final odds hinging on tomorrow's 00z model runs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on March 27?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?
86-87°F 26%
88-89°F 24%
84-85°F 21%
90-91°F 19%
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
24%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
11%
94°F or higher
11%
86-87°F 26%
88-89°F 24%
84-85°F 21%
90-91°F 19%
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
24%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
11%
94°F or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters around 84-93°F for Austin's March 27 high, reflecting NOAA ensemble forecasts peaking at 86-89°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas, fostering subsidence and clear skies for efficient daytime heating. Southerly winds advecting moist Gulf air have boosted dewpoints to the 60s°F, enhancing instability but models predict minimal convection, favoring hotter outcomes over cooler bins. Differentiators include ECMWF's warmer bias versus GFS cooling hints from possible mid-afternoon clouds, plus Austin's urban heat island adding 1-2°F to rural sensor readings at official stations like Camp Mabry. Historical March norms near 76°F underscore this +10-15°F anomaly from persistent warm advection, with final odds hinging on tomorrow's 00z model runs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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