Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive trader consensus toward Los Angeles highs of 72-73°F (24% implied probability) on March 26, with 70-71°F (21%) a close second, reflecting mild Santa Ana winds and persistent marine layer influence suppressing extremes. These leading bins edge out warmer 74-75°F outcomes (14.5%) due to strengthened onshore flow in recent 00Z runs, which enhances coastal cooling via advection fog and low stratus clouds—key differentiators verified by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard observations. Historical March baselines average 69-72°F, but current upper-level ridging provides just enough subsidence warming to favor the mid-70s without tipping into 80°F outliers (under 5% combined). Traders eye afternoon model updates for potential shifts in boundary layer mixing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 26?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 26?
72-73°F 25%
74-75°F 19%
70-71°F 19%
76-77°F 7%
$18,319 Vol.
$18,319 Vol.
67°F or below
4%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
19%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
1%
72-73°F 25%
74-75°F 19%
70-71°F 19%
76-77°F 7%
$18,319 Vol.
$18,319 Vol.
67°F or below
4%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
19%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
7%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive trader consensus toward Los Angeles highs of 72-73°F (24% implied probability) on March 26, with 70-71°F (21%) a close second, reflecting mild Santa Ana winds and persistent marine layer influence suppressing extremes. These leading bins edge out warmer 74-75°F outcomes (14.5%) due to strengthened onshore flow in recent 00Z runs, which enhances coastal cooling via advection fog and low stratus clouds—key differentiators verified by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard observations. Historical March baselines average 69-72°F, but current upper-level ridging provides just enough subsidence warming to favor the mid-70s without tipping into 80°F outliers (under 5% combined). Traders eye afternoon model updates for potential shifts in boundary layer mixing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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