Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Taipei high of 21-23°C on March 27, with 21°C or below leading at 28% implied probability, driven by Taiwan Central Weather Administration's latest forecast of 22-24°C amid lingering cool northeasterly winds and partial cloud cover. Historical data shows late-March highs averaging 23°C with a standard deviation of 2°C, but current ECMWF and GFS ensemble models diverge—ECMWF at 22.5°C mean versus GFS warmer bias—heightening uncertainty in the tightly matched odds. Differentiating factors include potential sea breeze moderation capping peaks below 24°C and urban heat island effects boosting readings by 1-2°C, with final resolution hinging on diurnal solar forcing and evening cooldown.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on March 27?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 27?
21°C or below 28%
22°C 22%
23°C 14%
24°C 11%
21°C or below
28%
22°C
24%
23°C
14%
24°C
11%
25°C
11%
26°C
10%
27°C
6%
28°C
10%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
2%
21°C or below 28%
22°C 22%
23°C 14%
24°C 11%
21°C or below
28%
22°C
24%
23°C
14%
24°C
11%
25°C
11%
26°C
10%
27°C
6%
28°C
10%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Taipei high of 21-23°C on March 27, with 21°C or below leading at 28% implied probability, driven by Taiwan Central Weather Administration's latest forecast of 22-24°C amid lingering cool northeasterly winds and partial cloud cover. Historical data shows late-March highs averaging 23°C with a standard deviation of 2°C, but current ECMWF and GFS ensemble models diverge—ECMWF at 22.5°C mean versus GFS warmer bias—heightening uncertainty in the tightly matched odds. Differentiating factors include potential sea breeze moderation capping peaks below 24°C and urban heat island effects boosting readings by 1-2°C, with final resolution hinging on diurnal solar forcing and evening cooldown.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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