Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa dominates trader consensus at 87.5% implied probability for California's 21st Congressional District due to his commanding fundraising lead—over $1.1 million raised and $850,000 cash on hand as of late March—vastly outpacing Republican challengers Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios. Post-mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50, the Central Valley seat now carries a D+5 to D+6 partisan lean, per Cook Political Report's "Likely Democratic" rating, reflecting a shift leftward that favored Kamala Harris by six points in 2024 simulations. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Costa's 2024 primary win (53%) and general victory (52.6%) underscore his incumbency edge in a district where Democrats hold 41% voter registration to Republicans' 27%, positioning a likely Costa-Republican general matchup as favorable for the party.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-21 House Election Winner
CA-21 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$953 ปริมาณ
88%
Republican Party
$1,272 ปริมาณ
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa dominates trader consensus at 87.5% implied probability for California's 21st Congressional District due to his commanding fundraising lead—over $1.1 million raised and $850,000 cash on hand as of late March—vastly outpacing Republican challengers Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios. Post-mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50, the Central Valley seat now carries a D+5 to D+6 partisan lean, per Cook Political Report's "Likely Democratic" rating, reflecting a shift leftward that favored Kamala Harris by six points in 2024 simulations. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Costa's 2024 primary win (53%) and general victory (52.6%) underscore his incumbency edge in a district where Democrats hold 41% voter registration to Republicans' 27%, positioning a likely Costa-Republican general matchup as favorable for the party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,225วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa dominates trader consensus at 87.5% implied probability for California's 21st Congressional District due to his commanding fundraising lead—over $1.1 million raised and $850,000 cash on hand as of late March—vastly outpacing Republican challengers Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios. Post-mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50, the Central Valley seat now carries a D+5 to D+6 partisan lean, per Cook Political Report's "Likely Democratic" rating, reflecting a shift leftward that favored Kamala Harris by six points in 2024 simulations. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Costa's 2024 primary win (53%) and general victory (52.6%) underscore his incumbency edge in a district where Democrats hold 41% voter registration to Republicans' 27%, positioning a likely Costa-Republican general matchup as favorable for the party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,225วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa dominates trader consensus at 87.5% implied probability for California's 21st Congressional District due to his commanding fundraising lead—over $1.1 million raised and $850,000 cash on hand as of late March—vastly outpacing Republican challengers Kyle Kirkland and Lorenzo Rios. Post-mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50, the Central Valley seat now carries a D+5 to D+6 partisan lean, per Cook Political Report's "Likely Democratic" rating, reflecting a shift leftward that favored Kamala Harris by six points in 2024 simulations. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Costa's 2024 primary win (53%) and general victory (52.6%) underscore his incumbency edge in a district where Democrats hold 41% voter registration to Republicans' 27%, positioning a likely Costa-Republican general matchup as favorable for the party.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย