Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary for Texas's 34th congressional district and enters the November general election with a structural advantage from name recognition and prior victories in this South Texas seat. Recent redistricting added territory that shifted the partisan balance, creating a more competitive environment reflected in late-April polling showing the Republican nominee Eric Flores within a few points. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 74% implied probability because incumbency, local voter patterns, and campaign infrastructure continue to outweigh the effects of the map changes and early Republican momentum. The race remains fluid ahead of the November contest, with potential movement from turnout in Hispanic-heavy precincts and any late-cycle developments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоTX-34 House Election Winner
TX-34 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
73%
Republican Party
30%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$552 Обс.
73%
Republican Party
$290 Обс.
30%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary for Texas's 34th congressional district and enters the November general election with a structural advantage from name recognition and prior victories in this South Texas seat. Recent redistricting added territory that shifted the partisan balance, creating a more competitive environment reflected in late-April polling showing the Republican nominee Eric Flores within a few points. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 74% implied probability because incumbency, local voter patterns, and campaign infrastructure continue to outweigh the effects of the map changes and early Republican momentum. The race remains fluid ahead of the November contest, with potential movement from turnout in Hispanic-heavy precincts and any late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$843Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary for Texas's 34th congressional district and enters the November general election with a structural advantage from name recognition and prior victories in this South Texas seat. Recent redistricting added territory that shifted the partisan balance, creating a more competitive environment reflected in late-April polling showing the Republican nominee Eric Flores within a few points. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 74% implied probability because incumbency, local voter patterns, and campaign infrastructure continue to outweigh the effects of the map changes and early Republican momentum. The race remains fluid ahead of the November contest, with potential movement from turnout in Hispanic-heavy precincts and any late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$843Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary for Texas's 34th congressional district and enters the November general election with a structural advantage from name recognition and prior victories in this South Texas seat. Recent redistricting added territory that shifted the partisan balance, creating a more competitive environment reflected in late-April polling showing the Republican nominee Eric Flores within a few points. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 74% implied probability because incumbency, local voter patterns, and campaign infrastructure continue to outweigh the effects of the map changes and early Republican momentum. The race remains fluid ahead of the November contest, with potential movement from turnout in Hispanic-heavy precincts and any late-cycle developments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання