Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district, where the Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the November 2026 general election Solid Democratic. The district's D+13 partisan voter index, combined with Carbajal's 62.7% re-election share in 2024 and strong primary performance against Republican Bob Smith, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Democratic odds. Smith advanced from the June top-two primary but trails significantly in fundraising and name recognition. A late national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent could theoretically narrow the margin, though the district's consistent Democratic registration edge and voting history make such shifts improbable without extraordinary developments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$45,520 交易量
$45,520 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
1%
$45,520 交易量
$45,520 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
$27,497 交易量
95%
Republican Party
$18,023 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district, where the Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the November 2026 general election Solid Democratic. The district's D+13 partisan voter index, combined with Carbajal's 62.7% re-election share in 2024 and strong primary performance against Republican Bob Smith, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Democratic odds. Smith advanced from the June top-two primary but trails significantly in fundraising and name recognition. A late national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent could theoretically narrow the margin, though the district's consistent Democratic registration edge and voting history make such shifts improbable without extraordinary developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$45,520結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district, where the Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the November 2026 general election Solid Democratic. The district's D+13 partisan voter index, combined with Carbajal's 62.7% re-election share in 2024 and strong primary performance against Republican Bob Smith, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Democratic odds. Smith advanced from the June top-two primary but trails significantly in fundraising and name recognition. A late national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent could theoretically narrow the margin, though the district's consistent Democratic registration edge and voting history make such shifts improbable without extraordinary developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$45,520結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district, where the Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the November 2026 general election Solid Democratic. The district's D+13 partisan voter index, combined with Carbajal's 62.7% re-election share in 2024 and strong primary performance against Republican Bob Smith, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Democratic odds. Smith advanced from the June top-two primary but trails significantly in fundraising and name recognition. A late national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent could theoretically narrow the margin, though the district's consistent Democratic registration edge and voting history make such shifts improbable without extraordinary developments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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