**Trader consensus has converged on the 98-99°F bin at near-100% implied probability because official National Weather Service observations at Austin Camp Mabry recorded a daily maximum in that narrow range on August 5.** Persistent summer heat, with forecast highs in the upper 90s to low 100s and minimal cloud cover or precipitation, aligned closely with the actual reading, leaving little room for deviation once data were finalized. This skin-in-the-game outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating real-time model runs from NOAA and surface station reports. Scenarios that could have shifted the result—such as an unexpected late-day thunderstorm, measurement revision, or station-specific microclimate effects—did not materialize, confirming the market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月5日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
8月5日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
98-99°F 100.0%
89°F或以下 <1%
90-91°F <1%
92-93°F <1%
$29,591 交易量
$29,591 交易量
2026-08-05
89°F或以下
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
100%
100-101°F
<1%
102-103°F
<1%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
華氏108度或更高
<1%
98-99°F 100.0%
89°F或以下 <1%
90-91°F <1%
92-93°F <1%
$29,591 交易量
$29,591 交易量
2026-08-05
89°F或以下
$684 交易量
<1%
90-91°F
$721 交易量
<1%
92-93°F
$1,147 交易量
<1%
94-95°F
$1,464 交易量
<1%
96-97°F
$4,612 交易量
<1%
98-99°F
$11,383 交易量
100%
100-101°F
$5,156 交易量
<1%
102-103°F
$2,036 交易量
<1%
104-105°F
$1,664 交易量
<1%
106-107°F
$437 交易量
<1%
華氏108度或更高
$287 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on the 98-99°F bin at near-100% implied probability because official National Weather Service observations at Austin Camp Mabry recorded a daily maximum in that narrow range on August 5.** Persistent summer heat, with forecast highs in the upper 90s to low 100s and minimal cloud cover or precipitation, aligned closely with the actual reading, leaving little room for deviation once data were finalized. This skin-in-the-game outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating real-time model runs from NOAA and surface station reports. Scenarios that could have shifted the result—such as an unexpected late-day thunderstorm, measurement revision, or station-specific microclimate effects—did not materialize, confirming the market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
交易量
$29,591結束日期
2026-08-05市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on the 98-99°F bin at near-100% implied probability because official National Weather Service observations at Austin Camp Mabry recorded a daily maximum in that narrow range on August 5.** Persistent summer heat, with forecast highs in the upper 90s to low 100s and minimal cloud cover or precipitation, aligned closely with the actual reading, leaving little room for deviation once data were finalized. This skin-in-the-game outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating real-time model runs from NOAA and surface station reports. Scenarios that could have shifted the result—such as an unexpected late-day thunderstorm, measurement revision, or station-specific microclimate effects—did not materialize, confirming the market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$29,591結束日期
2026-08-05市場開放時間
Aug 3, 2026, 9:03 PM ET**Trader consensus has converged on the 98-99°F bin at near-100% implied probability because official National Weather Service observations at Austin Camp Mabry recorded a daily maximum in that narrow range on August 5.** Persistent summer heat, with forecast highs in the upper 90s to low 100s and minimal cloud cover or precipitation, aligned closely with the actual reading, leaving little room for deviation once data were finalized. This skin-in-the-game outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating real-time model runs from NOAA and surface station reports. Scenarios that could have shifted the result—such as an unexpected late-day thunderstorm, measurement revision, or station-specific microclimate effects—did not materialize, confirming the market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions