**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency points to a daytime maximum of 32°C in Tokyo on August 6 under mostly cloudy skies, with a minimum near 24°C.** This aligns closely with the market’s leading implied probability for 32°C (39.5%), followed by 33°C (29.0%) and 31°C (16.5%), reflecting trader assessment of narrow uncertainty around the official guidance. Typical August conditions in Tokyo feature average highs of 31–32°C, elevated humidity above 70%, and an urban heat-island effect that can add 1–2°C locally during peak afternoon hours. The cloudy pattern forecast for the 6th is expected to limit strong solar heating and convective development, capping any upside potential. Recent model runs show little deviation from the 31–33°C envelope, consistent with climatological baselines and the absence of atypical synoptic features such as a strong ridge or tropical moisture influx. Resolution will depend on the official JMA observation at the Tokyo station; traders appear to be weighting the current forecast heavily while allowing modest probability mass for minor forecast adjustments overnight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月6日東京氣溫最高？
8月6日東京氣溫最高？
32°C 39%
33°C 29%
31°C 17%
34°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-06
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
3%
31°C
17%
32°C
39%
33°C
29%
34°C
9%
35°C
4%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 39%
33°C 29%
31°C 17%
34°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-06
26°C or below
$243 交易量
<1%
27°C
$476 交易量
<1%
28°C
$866 交易量
<1%
29°C
$524 交易量
2%
30°C
$283 交易量
3%
31°C
$1,046 交易量
17%
32°C
$853 交易量
39%
33°C
$856 交易量
29%
34°C
$1,022 交易量
9%
35°C
$459 交易量
4%
36°C or higher
$778 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency points to a daytime maximum of 32°C in Tokyo on August 6 under mostly cloudy skies, with a minimum near 24°C.** This aligns closely with the market’s leading implied probability for 32°C (39.5%), followed by 33°C (29.0%) and 31°C (16.5%), reflecting trader assessment of narrow uncertainty around the official guidance.
Typical August conditions in Tokyo feature average highs of 31–32°C, elevated humidity above 70%, and an urban heat-island effect that can add 1–2°C locally during peak afternoon hours. The cloudy pattern forecast for the 6th is expected to limit strong solar heating and convective development, capping any upside potential. Recent model runs show little deviation from the 31–33°C envelope, consistent with climatological baselines and the absence of atypical synoptic features such as a strong ridge or tropical moisture influx.
Resolution will depend on the official JMA observation at the Tokyo station; traders appear to be weighting the current forecast heavily while allowing modest probability mass for minor forecast adjustments overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$7,405結束日期
2026-08-06市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency points to a daytime maximum of 32°C in Tokyo on August 6 under mostly cloudy skies, with a minimum near 24°C.** This aligns closely with the market’s leading implied probability for 32°C (39.5%), followed by 33°C (29.0%) and 31°C (16.5%), reflecting trader assessment of narrow uncertainty around the official guidance.
Typical August conditions in Tokyo feature average highs of 31–32°C, elevated humidity above 70%, and an urban heat-island effect that can add 1–2°C locally during peak afternoon hours. The cloudy pattern forecast for the 6th is expected to limit strong solar heating and convective development, capping any upside potential. Recent model runs show little deviation from the 31–33°C envelope, consistent with climatological baselines and the absence of atypical synoptic features such as a strong ridge or tropical moisture influx.
Resolution will depend on the official JMA observation at the Tokyo station; traders appear to be weighting the current forecast heavily while allowing modest probability mass for minor forecast adjustments overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$7,405結束日期
2026-08-06市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency points to a daytime maximum of 32°C in Tokyo on August 6 under mostly cloudy skies, with a minimum near 24°C.** This aligns closely with the market’s leading implied probability for 32°C (39.5%), followed by 33°C (29.0%) and 31°C (16.5%), reflecting trader assessment of narrow uncertainty around the official guidance. Typical August conditions in Tokyo feature average highs of 31–32°C, elevated humidity above 70%, and an urban heat-island effect that can add 1–2°C locally during peak afternoon hours. The cloudy pattern forecast for the 6th is expected to limit strong solar heating and convective development, capping any upside potential. Recent model runs show little deviation from the 31–33°C envelope, consistent with climatological baselines and the absence of atypical synoptic features such as a strong ridge or tropical moisture influx. Resolution will depend on the official JMA observation at the Tokyo station; traders appear to be weighting the current forecast heavily while allowing modest probability mass for minor forecast adjustments overnight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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