Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors an 18°C high temperature in Cape Town on May 5, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast of a maximum 18°C amid an intense cut-off low pressure system ushering cold air, cloudy skies, and isolated showers over the Western Cape. This synoptic feature has suppressed daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and southerly winds, with model ensembles from SAWS aligning closely on this outcome, consistent with intraday METAR observations so far. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected afternoon clearing for enhanced solar insolation or localized warmer pockets near Cape Town International Airport, the market's resolution station, though current atmospheric conditions make 19°C or higher unlikely absent rapid forecast revisions. SAWS updates expected later today could refine this further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Cape Town on May 5?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on May 5?
18°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$43,518 交易量
$43,518 交易量
2026-05-05
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$43,518 交易量
$43,518 交易量
2026-05-05
9°C or below
$1,798 交易量
No
10°C
$1,159 交易量
No
11°C
$649 交易量
No
12°C
$754 交易量
No
13°C
$603 交易量
No
14°C
$1,901 交易量
No
15°C
$1,946 交易量
No
16°C
$3,156 交易量
No
17°C
$4,101 交易量
No
18°C
$13,253 交易量
Yes
19°C or higher
$14,198 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors an 18°C high temperature in Cape Town on May 5, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast of a maximum 18°C amid an intense cut-off low pressure system ushering cold air, cloudy skies, and isolated showers over the Western Cape. This synoptic feature has suppressed daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and southerly winds, with model ensembles from SAWS aligning closely on this outcome, consistent with intraday METAR observations so far. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected afternoon clearing for enhanced solar insolation or localized warmer pockets near Cape Town International Airport, the market's resolution station, though current atmospheric conditions make 19°C or higher unlikely absent rapid forecast revisions. SAWS updates expected later today could refine this further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
交易量
$43,518結束日期
2026-05-05市場開放時間
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors an 18°C high temperature in Cape Town on May 5, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast of a maximum 18°C amid an intense cut-off low pressure system ushering cold air, cloudy skies, and isolated showers over the Western Cape. This synoptic feature has suppressed daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and southerly winds, with model ensembles from SAWS aligning closely on this outcome, consistent with intraday METAR observations so far. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected afternoon clearing for enhanced solar insolation or localized warmer pockets near Cape Town International Airport, the market's resolution station, though current atmospheric conditions make 19°C or higher unlikely absent rapid forecast revisions. SAWS updates expected later today could refine this further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$43,518結束日期
2026-05-05市場開放時間
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors an 18°C high temperature in Cape Town on May 5, 2026, at nearly 100% implied probability, driven by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) official forecast of a maximum 18°C amid an intense cut-off low pressure system ushering cold air, cloudy skies, and isolated showers over the Western Cape. This synoptic feature has suppressed daytime heating through persistent cloud cover and southerly winds, with model ensembles from SAWS aligning closely on this outcome, consistent with intraday METAR observations so far. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected afternoon clearing for enhanced solar insolation or localized warmer pockets near Cape Town International Airport, the market's resolution station, though current atmospheric conditions make 19°C or higher unlikely absent rapid forecast revisions. SAWS updates expected later today could refine this further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions