Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate daytime maxima of 37–38°C in Madrid for August 8 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and typical summer insolation over the central plateau, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 47% and 32% implied probability. These temperatures sit above long-term August averages near 32–33°C but fall short of extreme heatwave thresholds above 40°C seen earlier in 2026. Minor model spread around wind patterns and boundary-layer mixing supports the narrow clustering between 37–39°C, while traders await the next AEMET and ECMWF runs for any adjustments ahead of the August 8 resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月8日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月8日馬德裏氣溫最高？
38°C 48%
39°C 22%
37°C 22%
40°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-08
34°C或以下
1%
35°C
2%
36°C
5%
37°C
22%
38°C
48%
39°C
22%
40°C
6%
41°C
2%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C或更高
<1%
38°C 48%
39°C 22%
37°C 22%
40°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-08
34°C或以下
$10 交易量
1%
35°C
$20 交易量
2%
36°C
$136 交易量
5%
37°C
$263 交易量
22%
38°C
$296 交易量
48%
39°C
$506 交易量
22%
40°C
$54 交易量
6%
41°C
$31 交易量
2%
42°C
$101 交易量
<1%
43°C
$79 交易量
<1%
44°C或更高
$79 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate daytime maxima of 37–38°C in Madrid for August 8 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and typical summer insolation over the central plateau, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 47% and 32% implied probability. These temperatures sit above long-term August averages near 32–33°C but fall short of extreme heatwave thresholds above 40°C seen earlier in 2026. Minor model spread around wind patterns and boundary-layer mixing supports the narrow clustering between 37–39°C, while traders await the next AEMET and ECMWF runs for any adjustments ahead of the August 8 resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$1,521結束日期
2026-08-08市場開放時間
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate daytime maxima of 37–38°C in Madrid for August 8 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and typical summer insolation over the central plateau, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 47% and 32% implied probability. These temperatures sit above long-term August averages near 32–33°C but fall short of extreme heatwave thresholds above 40°C seen earlier in 2026. Minor model spread around wind patterns and boundary-layer mixing supports the narrow clustering between 37–39°C, while traders await the next AEMET and ECMWF runs for any adjustments ahead of the August 8 resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,521結束日期
2026-08-08市場開放時間
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETRecent short-range forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and European models indicate daytime maxima of 37–38°C in Madrid for August 8 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and typical summer insolation over the central plateau, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes at 47% and 32% implied probability. These temperatures sit above long-term August averages near 32–33°C but fall short of extreme heatwave thresholds above 40°C seen earlier in 2026. Minor model spread around wind patterns and boundary-layer mixing supports the narrow clustering between 37–39°C, while traders await the next AEMET and ECMWF runs for any adjustments ahead of the August 8 resolution window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions