Traders assign the highest probabilities to 82–85°F highs for July 5 in New York City because official National Weather Service and model guidance show moderating temperatures after the July 4 peak heat wave. A weakening ridge and increasing moisture will support scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting full insolation and capping afternoon maxima near 89°F with a 40% rain chance. Sea-breeze circulation off the Atlantic and partial cloud cover further suppress readings, while ensemble spreads keep the most likely outcomes clustered in the low-to-mid 80s. Higher bins above 88°F carry low odds given the expected convective cooling and timing of any frontal passage, consistent with current short-range forecast consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月5日紐約市的最高溫度？
7月5日紐約市的最高溫度？
78-79°F 100.0%
73°F or below <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$398,106 交易量
$398,106 交易量
2026-07-05
73°F or below
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
Yes
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92°F or higher
No
78-79°F 100.0%
73°F or below <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$398,106 交易量
$398,106 交易量
2026-07-05
73°F or below
$5,932 交易量
No
74-75°F
$3,100 交易量
No
76-77°F
$138,459 交易量
No
78-79°F
$50,560 交易量
Yes
80-81°F
$42,601 交易量
No
82-83°F
$45,200 交易量
No
84-85°F
$42,217 交易量
No
86-87°F
$24,949 交易量
No
88-89°F
$18,486 交易量
No
90-91°F
$10,420 交易量
No
92°F or higher
$16,184 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest probabilities to 82–85°F highs for July 5 in New York City because official National Weather Service and model guidance show moderating temperatures after the July 4 peak heat wave. A weakening ridge and increasing moisture will support scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting full insolation and capping afternoon maxima near 89°F with a 40% rain chance. Sea-breeze circulation off the Atlantic and partial cloud cover further suppress readings, while ensemble spreads keep the most likely outcomes clustered in the low-to-mid 80s. Higher bins above 88°F carry low odds given the expected convective cooling and timing of any frontal passage, consistent with current short-range forecast consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$398,106結束日期
2026-07-05市場開放時間
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest probabilities to 82–85°F highs for July 5 in New York City because official National Weather Service and model guidance show moderating temperatures after the July 4 peak heat wave. A weakening ridge and increasing moisture will support scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting full insolation and capping afternoon maxima near 89°F with a 40% rain chance. Sea-breeze circulation off the Atlantic and partial cloud cover further suppress readings, while ensemble spreads keep the most likely outcomes clustered in the low-to-mid 80s. Higher bins above 88°F carry low odds given the expected convective cooling and timing of any frontal passage, consistent with current short-range forecast consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$398,106結束日期
2026-07-05市場開放時間
Jul 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Traders assign the highest probabilities to 82–85°F highs for July 5 in New York City because official National Weather Service and model guidance show moderating temperatures after the July 4 peak heat wave. A weakening ridge and increasing moisture will support scattered showers and thunderstorms, limiting full insolation and capping afternoon maxima near 89°F with a 40% rain chance. Sea-breeze circulation off the Atlantic and partial cloud cover further suppress readings, while ensemble spreads keep the most likely outcomes clustered in the low-to-mid 80s. Higher bins above 88°F carry low odds given the expected convective cooling and timing of any frontal passage, consistent with current short-range forecast consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions