**Forecast consensus from Météo-France and supporting models positions 25–26°C as the most probable daily maximum for Paris on August 6, 2026, driving the combined ~86% market-implied probability.** A transient cooldown from recent warmer conditions features largely sunny skies, light winds, and reduced warm-air advection, yielding morning lows near 17°C and afternoon peaks of 25–26°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range, with limited potential for brief cloud cover or showers that could cap heating. Historical August climatology for Paris centers near 24–25°C, so current conditions align closely with baseline expectations rather than extremes. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at the reference station; any late-model shift in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing could nudge the outcome between the two leading bins. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs heavily, with minimal probability assigned to outliers above 27°C or below 24°C given the stable synoptic pattern.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月6日巴黎最高溫度？
8月6日巴黎最高溫度？
25°C 50%
26°C 35%
27°C 12%
24°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-06
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
50%
26°C
35%
27°C
12%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 50%
26°C 35%
27°C 12%
24°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-06
21°C or below
$865 交易量
<1%
22°C
$1,311 交易量
<1%
23°C
$613 交易量
2%
24°C
$984 交易量
5%
25°C
$1,680 交易量
50%
26°C
$1,249 交易量
35%
27°C
$1,064 交易量
12%
28°C
$727 交易量
2%
29°C
$799 交易量
1%
30°C
$338 交易量
<1%
31°C or higher
$1,451 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from Météo-France and supporting models positions 25–26°C as the most probable daily maximum for Paris on August 6, 2026, driving the combined ~86% market-implied probability.**
A transient cooldown from recent warmer conditions features largely sunny skies, light winds, and reduced warm-air advection, yielding morning lows near 17°C and afternoon peaks of 25–26°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range, with limited potential for brief cloud cover or showers that could cap heating. Historical August climatology for Paris centers near 24–25°C, so current conditions align closely with baseline expectations rather than extremes. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at the reference station; any late-model shift in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing could nudge the outcome between the two leading bins. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs heavily, with minimal probability assigned to outliers above 27°C or below 24°C given the stable synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
交易量
$9,773結束日期
2026-08-06市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from Météo-France and supporting models positions 25–26°C as the most probable daily maximum for Paris on August 6, 2026, driving the combined ~86% market-implied probability.**
A transient cooldown from recent warmer conditions features largely sunny skies, light winds, and reduced warm-air advection, yielding morning lows near 17°C and afternoon peaks of 25–26°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range, with limited potential for brief cloud cover or showers that could cap heating. Historical August climatology for Paris centers near 24–25°C, so current conditions align closely with baseline expectations rather than extremes. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at the reference station; any late-model shift in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing could nudge the outcome between the two leading bins. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs heavily, with minimal probability assigned to outliers above 27°C or below 24°C given the stable synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$9,773結束日期
2026-08-06市場開放時間
Aug 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ET**Forecast consensus from Météo-France and supporting models positions 25–26°C as the most probable daily maximum for Paris on August 6, 2026, driving the combined ~86% market-implied probability.** A transient cooldown from recent warmer conditions features largely sunny skies, light winds, and reduced warm-air advection, yielding morning lows near 17°C and afternoon peaks of 25–26°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around this range, with limited potential for brief cloud cover or showers that could cap heating. Historical August climatology for Paris centers near 24–25°C, so current conditions align closely with baseline expectations rather than extremes. Resolution will hinge on the official maximum recorded at the reference station; any late-model shift in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing could nudge the outcome between the two leading bins. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs heavily, with minimal probability assigned to outliers above 27°C or below 24°C given the stable synoptic pattern.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions