Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to 17°C or higher as the highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime highs near 16-18°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering southerly airflow and above-average warmth for mid-April. Recent runs over the past 48 hours have trended warmer, reducing cold-outlier odds like 7°C or below to 25.5% despite lingering model spread from potential northerly shifts. Historical mid-April averages hover around 14°C per IMGW climatology, with current forecasts showing low precipitation risk; watch daily updates from Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) for refinements ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
15°C 31%
16°C 28%
14°C 19%
17°C or higher 19%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
7°C or below
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
4%
11°C
5%
12°C
6%
13°C
11%
14°C
19%
15°C
31%
16°C
28%
17°C or higher
19%
15°C 31%
16°C 28%
14°C 19%
17°C or higher 19%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
7°C or below
$285 交易量
1%
8°C
$285 交易量
1%
9°C
$112 交易量
3%
10°C
$14 交易量
4%
11°C
$0 交易量
5%
12°C
$0 交易量
6%
13°C
$0 交易量
11%
14°C
$0 交易量
19%
15°C
$0 交易量
31%
16°C
$11 交易量
28%
17°C or higher
$7 交易量
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to 17°C or higher as the highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime highs near 16-18°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering southerly airflow and above-average warmth for mid-April. Recent runs over the past 48 hours have trended warmer, reducing cold-outlier odds like 7°C or below to 25.5% despite lingering model spread from potential northerly shifts. Historical mid-April averages hover around 14°C per IMGW climatology, with current forecasts showing low precipitation risk; watch daily updates from Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ET
交易量
$705结束日期
2026-04-17市场开放时间
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to 17°C or higher as the highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime highs near 16-18°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering southerly airflow and above-average warmth for mid-April. Recent runs over the past 48 hours have trended warmer, reducing cold-outlier odds like 7°C or below to 25.5% despite lingering model spread from potential northerly shifts. Historical mid-April averages hover around 14°C per IMGW climatology, with current forecasts showing low precipitation risk; watch daily updates from Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$705结束日期
2026-04-17市场开放时间
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to 17°C or higher as the highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting daytime highs near 16-18°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe, fostering southerly airflow and above-average warmth for mid-April. Recent runs over the past 48 hours have trended warmer, reducing cold-outlier odds like 7°C or below to 25.5% despite lingering model spread from potential northerly shifts. Historical mid-April averages hover around 14°C per IMGW climatology, with current forecasts showing low precipitation risk; watch daily updates from Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) for refinements ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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