Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 19°C or higher in Mexico City on April 15, with 99.4% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like those from NOAA, projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with April climatology, where daily maximums average 26°C at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, rarely dipping below 23°C due to persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and minimal cold-front risks this late in dry season. Supporting evidence includes stable recent observations—highs near 27°C over the past week—and model agreement on continued warming from solar heating. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous polar air intrusion or unexpected cloud cover suppressing insolation, though upper-air patterns show no such signals; monitor SMN's midday update for refinements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 15?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 15?
19°C or higher 99.4%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
最新
$242,166 交易量
最新
$242,166 交易量
2026-04-15
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
99%
19°C or higher 99.4%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
最新
$242,166 交易量
最新
$242,166 交易量
2026-04-15
9°C or below
$4,382 交易量
<1%
10°C
$12,490 交易量
<1%
11°C
$10,757 交易量
<1%
12°C
$4,341 交易量
<1%
13°C
$4,241 交易量
<1%
14°C
$4,316 交易量
<1%
15°C
$11,334 交易量
<1%
16°C
$40,768 交易量
<1%
17°C
$48,758 交易量
<1%
18°C
$46,059 交易量
<1%
19°C or higher
$55,251 交易量
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 19°C or higher in Mexico City on April 15, with 99.4% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like those from NOAA, projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with April climatology, where daily maximums average 26°C at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, rarely dipping below 23°C due to persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and minimal cold-front risks this late in dry season. Supporting evidence includes stable recent observations—highs near 27°C over the past week—and model agreement on continued warming from solar heating. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous polar air intrusion or unexpected cloud cover suppressing insolation, though upper-air patterns show no such signals; monitor SMN's midday update for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 13, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
交易量
$242,166结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 12:36 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 19°C or higher in Mexico City on April 15, with 99.4% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like those from NOAA, projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with April climatology, where daily maximums average 26°C at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, rarely dipping below 23°C due to persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and minimal cold-front risks this late in dry season. Supporting evidence includes stable recent observations—highs near 27°C over the past week—and model agreement on continued warming from solar heating. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous polar air intrusion or unexpected cloud cover suppressing insolation, though upper-air patterns show no such signals; monitor SMN's midday update for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$242,166结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 12:36 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 19°C or higher in Mexico City on April 15, with 99.4% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like those from NOAA, projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with April climatology, where daily maximums average 26°C at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, rarely dipping below 23°C due to persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and minimal cold-front risks this late in dry season. Supporting evidence includes stable recent observations—highs near 27°C over the past week—and model agreement on continued warming from solar heating. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous polar air intrusion or unexpected cloud cover suppressing insolation, though upper-air patterns show no such signals; monitor SMN's midday update for refinements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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