Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Shanghai overnight low of 15°C at 46.5% implied probability, with 13°C (34.8%) and 14°C (27.6%) close behind, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts projecting a minimum around 14°C for April 15. Recent model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, updated within the past 24 hours, show consensus on mild southerly winds and lingering cloud cover from yesterday's showers, which limit radiative cooling and support lows 1-2°C above early-April climatological averages of 11-13°C. No cold fronts have intruded over the past week, stabilizing conditions amid spring warming. Key uncertainty stems from potential clearing skies overnight, with hourly CMA updates expected through evening; official readings from Shanghai's Pudong station will resolve the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月15日上海最低气温？
4月15日上海最低气温？
15°C 47.5%
13°C 34.6%
14°C 9.0%
12°C 5.8%
最新
$50,799 交易量
最新
$50,799 交易量
2026-04-16
9°C或以下
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
2%
12°C
6%
13°C
35%
14°C
28%
15°C
34%
15°C 47.5%
13°C 34.6%
14°C 9.0%
12°C 5.8%
最新
$50,799 交易量
最新
$50,799 交易量
2026-04-16
9°C或以下
$1,700 交易量
<1%
10°C
$1,846 交易量
<1%
11°C
$1,907 交易量
2%
12°C
$1,692 交易量
6%
13°C
$1,433 交易量
35%
14°C
$2,103 交易量
28%
15°C
$2,091 交易量
34%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Shanghai overnight low of 15°C at 46.5% implied probability, with 13°C (34.8%) and 14°C (27.6%) close behind, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts projecting a minimum around 14°C for April 15. Recent model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, updated within the past 24 hours, show consensus on mild southerly winds and lingering cloud cover from yesterday's showers, which limit radiative cooling and support lows 1-2°C above early-April climatological averages of 11-13°C. No cold fronts have intruded over the past week, stabilizing conditions amid spring warming. Key uncertainty stems from potential clearing skies overnight, with hourly CMA updates expected through evening; official readings from Shanghai's Pudong station will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ET
交易量
$50,799结束日期
2026-04-16市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Shanghai overnight low of 15°C at 46.5% implied probability, with 13°C (34.8%) and 14°C (27.6%) close behind, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts projecting a minimum around 14°C for April 15. Recent model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, updated within the past 24 hours, show consensus on mild southerly winds and lingering cloud cover from yesterday's showers, which limit radiative cooling and support lows 1-2°C above early-April climatological averages of 11-13°C. No cold fronts have intruded over the past week, stabilizing conditions amid spring warming. Key uncertainty stems from potential clearing skies overnight, with hourly CMA updates expected through evening; official readings from Shanghai's Pudong station will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$50,799结束日期
2026-04-16市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Shanghai overnight low of 15°C at 46.5% implied probability, with 13°C (34.8%) and 14°C (27.6%) close behind, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts projecting a minimum around 14°C for April 15. Recent model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, updated within the past 24 hours, show consensus on mild southerly winds and lingering cloud cover from yesterday's showers, which limit radiative cooling and support lows 1-2°C above early-April climatological averages of 11-13°C. No cold fronts have intruded over the past week, stabilizing conditions amid spring warming. Key uncertainty stems from potential clearing skies overnight, with hourly CMA updates expected through evening; official readings from Shanghai's Pudong station will resolve the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题