Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C or higher at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 15, reflecting strong alignment across ECMWF and GFS forecast models projecting peaks of 15-18°C under a building high-pressure ridge and southerly winds advecting mild continental air. Recent IMGW weekly outlook (updated April 13) describes typical spring conditions with central Poland maximums around 12-14°C amid cloudy skies and possible rain, but international models emphasize sunnier breaks boosting temps above the mid-April climatological average of 14°C. Yesterday's warm trend continuation supports this positioning, though lingering cloud cover introduces uncertainty; watch 00Z model runs and early observations for shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 15?
15°C or higher 88%
14°C 11.5%
13°C 2.3%
12°C <1%
最新
$85,820 交易量
最新
$85,820 交易量
2026-04-15
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
11%
15°C or higher
88%
15°C or higher 88%
14°C 11.5%
13°C 2.3%
12°C <1%
最新
$85,820 交易量
最新
$85,820 交易量
2026-04-15
5°C or below
$1,423 交易量
<1%
6°C
$3,687 交易量
<1%
7°C
$563 交易量
<1%
8°C
$2,370 交易量
<1%
9°C
$7,070 交易量
<1%
10°C
$10,187 交易量
<1%
11°C
$10,506 交易量
<1%
12°C
$9,115 交易量
1%
13°C
$8,642 交易量
2%
14°C
$8,669 交易量
11%
15°C or higher
$23,664 交易量
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C or higher at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 15, reflecting strong alignment across ECMWF and GFS forecast models projecting peaks of 15-18°C under a building high-pressure ridge and southerly winds advecting mild continental air. Recent IMGW weekly outlook (updated April 13) describes typical spring conditions with central Poland maximums around 12-14°C amid cloudy skies and possible rain, but international models emphasize sunnier breaks boosting temps above the mid-April climatological average of 14°C. Yesterday's warm trend continuation supports this positioning, though lingering cloud cover introduces uncertainty; watch 00Z model runs and early observations for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
交易量
$85,820结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C or higher at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 15, reflecting strong alignment across ECMWF and GFS forecast models projecting peaks of 15-18°C under a building high-pressure ridge and southerly winds advecting mild continental air. Recent IMGW weekly outlook (updated April 13) describes typical spring conditions with central Poland maximums around 12-14°C amid cloudy skies and possible rain, but international models emphasize sunnier breaks boosting temps above the mid-April climatological average of 14°C. Yesterday's warm trend continuation supports this positioning, though lingering cloud cover introduces uncertainty; watch 00Z model runs and early observations for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$85,820结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C or higher at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 15, reflecting strong alignment across ECMWF and GFS forecast models projecting peaks of 15-18°C under a building high-pressure ridge and southerly winds advecting mild continental air. Recent IMGW weekly outlook (updated April 13) describes typical spring conditions with central Poland maximums around 12-14°C amid cloudy skies and possible rain, but international models emphasize sunnier breaks boosting temps above the mid-April climatological average of 14°C. Yesterday's warm trend continuation supports this positioning, though lingering cloud cover introduces uncertainty; watch 00Z model runs and early observations for shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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