Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs point to overnight radiative cooling under clearing skies across southern England, positioning London’s minimum temperature for August 6 near 14–15 °C as the consensus outcome. Following an early-August warm spell that produced daytime highs near 29 °C, a northwesterly flow has introduced fresher air and reduced cloud cover, accelerating heat loss after sunset while keeping dew points supportive of minima in the mid-teens. Historical August climatology shows typical London lows around 13–14 °C, so current forecasts sit slightly above average yet remain consistent with the observed cooling trend. Traders are weighting these dynamical signals heavily, with implied probabilities concentrated on 14–15 °C reflecting limited upside for further nocturnal drops absent stronger high-pressure development or unexpected clear-sky persistence. Updated short-range model runs and official minimum-temperature bulletins scheduled for the evening of August 5 will provide the next key data points for position adjustment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 6?
Lowest temperature in London on August 6?
15°C 51%
14°C 31%
16°C 12%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
7%
14°C
31%
15°C
51%
16°C
12%
17°C
2%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 51%
14°C 31%
16°C 12%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
10°C or below
$40 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$130 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$175 Vol.
1%
13°C
$127 Vol.
7%
14°C
$573 Vol.
31%
15°C
$1,352 Vol.
51%
16°C
$164 Vol.
12%
17°C
$175 Vol.
2%
18°C
$118 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$34 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs point to overnight radiative cooling under clearing skies across southern England, positioning London’s minimum temperature for August 6 near 14–15 °C as the consensus outcome. Following an early-August warm spell that produced daytime highs near 29 °C, a northwesterly flow has introduced fresher air and reduced cloud cover, accelerating heat loss after sunset while keeping dew points supportive of minima in the mid-teens. Historical August climatology shows typical London lows around 13–14 °C, so current forecasts sit slightly above average yet remain consistent with the observed cooling trend. Traders are weighting these dynamical signals heavily, with implied probabilities concentrated on 14–15 °C reflecting limited upside for further nocturnal drops absent stronger high-pressure development or unexpected clear-sky persistence. Updated short-range model runs and official minimum-temperature bulletins scheduled for the evening of August 5 will provide the next key data points for position adjustment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,918End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs point to overnight radiative cooling under clearing skies across southern England, positioning London’s minimum temperature for August 6 near 14–15 °C as the consensus outcome. Following an early-August warm spell that produced daytime highs near 29 °C, a northwesterly flow has introduced fresher air and reduced cloud cover, accelerating heat loss after sunset while keeping dew points supportive of minima in the mid-teens. Historical August climatology shows typical London lows around 13–14 °C, so current forecasts sit slightly above average yet remain consistent with the observed cooling trend. Traders are weighting these dynamical signals heavily, with implied probabilities concentrated on 14–15 °C reflecting limited upside for further nocturnal drops absent stronger high-pressure development or unexpected clear-sky persistence. Updated short-range model runs and official minimum-temperature bulletins scheduled for the evening of August 5 will provide the next key data points for position adjustment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,918End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs point to overnight radiative cooling under clearing skies across southern England, positioning London’s minimum temperature for August 6 near 14–15 °C as the consensus outcome. Following an early-August warm spell that produced daytime highs near 29 °C, a northwesterly flow has introduced fresher air and reduced cloud cover, accelerating heat loss after sunset while keeping dew points supportive of minima in the mid-teens. Historical August climatology shows typical London lows around 13–14 °C, so current forecasts sit slightly above average yet remain consistent with the observed cooling trend. Traders are weighting these dynamical signals heavily, with implied probabilities concentrated on 14–15 °C reflecting limited upside for further nocturnal drops absent stronger high-pressure development or unexpected clear-sky persistence. Updated short-range model runs and official minimum-temperature bulletins scheduled for the evening of August 5 will provide the next key data points for position adjustment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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