Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 12°C and 13°C highs for Istanbul on April 17, reflecting genuine uncertainty in forecast models amid a persistent cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region from a weakening upper trough. Latest ECMWF and GFS runs show peak afternoon temperatures clustering 12–14°C, with ECMWF favoring denser cloud cover limiting insolation to cap at 12°C, while GFS suggests partial clearing for 13°C; GFS ensemble spread adds to the tight race. April 15's observed high near 13°C continues the subdued pattern below the 16°C climatological average, driven by Black Sea-influenced chilly advection. Overnight updates from Turkish State Meteorological Service hourly guidance and urban heat island variability at measurement stations could shift odds before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
13°C 36%
12°C 33%
14°C 22%
11°C 6%
NOUVEAU
$11,364 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$11,364 Vol.
17 avr. 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
6%
12°C
33%
13°C
36%
14°C
22%
15°C
4%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 36%
12°C 33%
14°C 22%
11°C 6%
NOUVEAU
$11,364 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$11,364 Vol.
17 avr. 2026
8°C or below
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,351 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$2,086 Vol.
2%
11°C
$2,109 Vol.
6%
12°C
$303 Vol.
33%
13°C
$364 Vol.
36%
14°C
$276 Vol.
22%
15°C
$746 Vol.
4%
16°C
$707 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,047 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$1,209 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 12°C and 13°C highs for Istanbul on April 17, reflecting genuine uncertainty in forecast models amid a persistent cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region from a weakening upper trough. Latest ECMWF and GFS runs show peak afternoon temperatures clustering 12–14°C, with ECMWF favoring denser cloud cover limiting insolation to cap at 12°C, while GFS suggests partial clearing for 13°C; GFS ensemble spread adds to the tight race. April 15's observed high near 13°C continues the subdued pattern below the 16°C climatological average, driven by Black Sea-influenced chilly advection. Overnight updates from Turkish State Meteorological Service hourly guidance and urban heat island variability at measurement stations could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volume
$11,364Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 12°C and 13°C highs for Istanbul on April 17, reflecting genuine uncertainty in forecast models amid a persistent cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region from a weakening upper trough. Latest ECMWF and GFS runs show peak afternoon temperatures clustering 12–14°C, with ECMWF favoring denser cloud cover limiting insolation to cap at 12°C, while GFS suggests partial clearing for 13°C; GFS ensemble spread adds to the tight race. April 15's observed high near 13°C continues the subdued pattern below the 16°C climatological average, driven by Black Sea-influenced chilly advection. Overnight updates from Turkish State Meteorological Service hourly guidance and urban heat island variability at measurement stations could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,364Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 12°C and 13°C highs for Istanbul on April 17, reflecting genuine uncertainty in forecast models amid a persistent cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region from a weakening upper trough. Latest ECMWF and GFS runs show peak afternoon temperatures clustering 12–14°C, with ECMWF favoring denser cloud cover limiting insolation to cap at 12°C, while GFS suggests partial clearing for 13°C; GFS ensemble spread adds to the tight race. April 15's observed high near 13°C continues the subdued pattern below the 16°C climatological average, driven by Black Sea-influenced chilly advection. Overnight updates from Turkish State Meteorological Service hourly guidance and urban heat island variability at measurement stations could shift odds before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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