Latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model ensembles point to a high near the low-to-mid 60s°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on April 14, fueling the 27% implied probability for 64°F or higher as traders weigh potential afternoon clearing against persistent marine stratus clouds. Recent showers through April 11-12 have reinforced onshore flow and cool, cloudy conditions typical of the region's microclimate, capping recent highs below 62°F and distributing probabilities across 58-63°F bins (17-15%). Key variables include the depth of the marine layer, timing of any diurnal clearing, and subtle shifts in upper-level ridging; stronger offshore winds could push toward 64°F+, while sustained cloud cover favors 58-59°F. New 12Z model runs expected April 13 will refine these uncertainties ahead of resolution based on official NWS-observed maximum temperature.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in San Francisco on April 14?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 14?
64°F or higher 50%
62-63°F 26%
56-57°F 16%
60-61°F 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 avr. 2026
45°F or below
1%
46-47°F
1%
48-49°F
1%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
3%
54-55°F
4%
56-57°F
10%
58-59°F
15%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
26%
64°F or higher
28%
64°F or higher 50%
62-63°F 26%
56-57°F 16%
60-61°F 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 avr. 2026
45°F or below
$215 Vol.
1%
46-47°F
$157 Vol.
1%
48-49°F
$155 Vol.
1%
50-51°F
$159 Vol.
1%
52-53°F
$6 Vol.
3%
54-55°F
$13 Vol.
4%
56-57°F
$33 Vol.
10%
58-59°F
$20 Vol.
15%
60-61°F
$7 Vol.
15%
62-63°F
$129 Vol.
26%
64°F or higher
$16 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model ensembles point to a high near the low-to-mid 60s°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on April 14, fueling the 27% implied probability for 64°F or higher as traders weigh potential afternoon clearing against persistent marine stratus clouds. Recent showers through April 11-12 have reinforced onshore flow and cool, cloudy conditions typical of the region's microclimate, capping recent highs below 62°F and distributing probabilities across 58-63°F bins (17-15%). Key variables include the depth of the marine layer, timing of any diurnal clearing, and subtle shifts in upper-level ridging; stronger offshore winds could push toward 64°F+, while sustained cloud cover favors 58-59°F. New 12Z model runs expected April 13 will refine these uncertainties ahead of resolution based on official NWS-observed maximum temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 12, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Volume
$911Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:14 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model ensembles point to a high near the low-to-mid 60s°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on April 14, fueling the 27% implied probability for 64°F or higher as traders weigh potential afternoon clearing against persistent marine stratus clouds. Recent showers through April 11-12 have reinforced onshore flow and cool, cloudy conditions typical of the region's microclimate, capping recent highs below 62°F and distributing probabilities across 58-63°F bins (17-15%). Key variables include the depth of the marine layer, timing of any diurnal clearing, and subtle shifts in upper-level ridging; stronger offshore winds could push toward 64°F+, while sustained cloud cover favors 58-59°F. New 12Z model runs expected April 13 will refine these uncertainties ahead of resolution based on official NWS-observed maximum temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$911Date de fin
14 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 12, 2026, 12:14 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model ensembles point to a high near the low-to-mid 60s°F at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on April 14, fueling the 27% implied probability for 64°F or higher as traders weigh potential afternoon clearing against persistent marine stratus clouds. Recent showers through April 11-12 have reinforced onshore flow and cool, cloudy conditions typical of the region's microclimate, capping recent highs below 62°F and distributing probabilities across 58-63°F bins (17-15%). Key variables include the depth of the marine layer, timing of any diurnal clearing, and subtle shifts in upper-level ridging; stronger offshore winds could push toward 64°F+, while sustained cloud cover favors 58-59°F. New 12Z model runs expected April 13 will refine these uncertainties ahead of resolution based on official NWS-observed maximum temperature.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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