Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 14–16°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17, reflecting the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which center on 15°C amid a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. This slight edge to 15°C over 16°C stems from persistent light northerly winds (10–15 km/h) introducing cooler continental air, capping daytime peaks despite ample sunshine and low precipitation risk (<20%). Differentiating factors include boundary layer mixing efficiency and afternoon cloud timing—persistent light cloud favors 14°C, while early clearing boosts to 16°C—against IMGW mid-April climatology averaging 14°C. New 00Z model runs expected overnight could shift odds further, highlighting inherent short-range forecast uncertainty of ±2°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
15°C 35%
16°C 30%
14°C 22%
17°C or higher 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 avr. 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
8%
14°C
22%
15°C
35%
16°C
30%
17°C or higher
11%
15°C 35%
16°C 30%
14°C 22%
17°C or higher 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 avr. 2026
7°C or below
$844 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,338 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,612 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$726 Vol.
1%
11°C
$1,045 Vol.
1%
12°C
$535 Vol.
3%
13°C
$839 Vol.
8%
14°C
$435 Vol.
22%
15°C
$309 Vol.
35%
16°C
$513 Vol.
30%
17°C or higher
$572 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 14–16°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17, reflecting the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which center on 15°C amid a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. This slight edge to 15°C over 16°C stems from persistent light northerly winds (10–15 km/h) introducing cooler continental air, capping daytime peaks despite ample sunshine and low precipitation risk (<20%). Differentiating factors include boundary layer mixing efficiency and afternoon cloud timing—persistent light cloud favors 14°C, while early clearing boosts to 16°C—against IMGW mid-April climatology averaging 14°C. New 00Z model runs expected overnight could shift odds further, highlighting inherent short-range forecast uncertainty of ±2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ET
Volume
$8,729Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 14–16°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17, reflecting the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which center on 15°C amid a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. This slight edge to 15°C over 16°C stems from persistent light northerly winds (10–15 km/h) introducing cooler continental air, capping daytime peaks despite ample sunshine and low precipitation risk (<20%). Differentiating factors include boundary layer mixing efficiency and afternoon cloud timing—persistent light cloud favors 14°C, while early clearing boosts to 16°C—against IMGW mid-April climatology averaging 14°C. New 00Z model runs expected overnight could shift odds further, highlighting inherent short-range forecast uncertainty of ±2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,729Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 14–16°C for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17, reflecting the tight spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, which center on 15°C amid a developing high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. This slight edge to 15°C over 16°C stems from persistent light northerly winds (10–15 km/h) introducing cooler continental air, capping daytime peaks despite ample sunshine and low precipitation risk (<20%). Differentiating factors include boundary layer mixing efficiency and afternoon cloud timing—persistent light cloud favors 14°C, while early clearing boosts to 16°C—against IMGW mid-April climatology averaging 14°C. New 00Z model runs expected overnight could shift odds further, highlighting inherent short-range forecast uncertainty of ±2°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes