Trader consensus on Munich's highest temperature April 7 reflects sharp divergence in global forecast models amid Europe's lingering early-April cold snap, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing spreads of 13–27°C based on the latest runs. A recent model update yesterday projecting up to 27°C under a building high-pressure ridge from the Azores has boosted the 23°C+ outcome to 25.5% market-implied probability, while persistent cold air advection risks from polar remnants sustain 13°C or below near 24%. Mid-range bids around 16–21°C capture typical spring variability, differentiated by frontal timing and cloud cover; historical April highs average 13–14°C per DWD records. Daily DWD bulletins and fresh ECMWF/GFS outputs through April 6 will sharpen resolution criteria.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Munich on April 7?
Highest temperature in Munich on April 7?
17°C 32%
19°C 22%
20°C 19%
18°C 18%
新規
新規
2026/04/07
13℃以下
1%
14°C
6%
15°C
16%
16°C
17%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
22%
20°C
19%
21°C
9%
22°C
8%
23°C or higher
13%
17°C 32%
19°C 22%
20°C 19%
18°C 18%
新規
新規
2026/04/07
13℃以下
$271 Vol.
1%
14°C
$10 Vol.
6%
15°C
$10 Vol.
16%
16°C
$0 Vol.
17%
17°C
$6 Vol.
18%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$0 Vol.
19%
21°C
$0 Vol.
9%
22°C
$0 Vol.
8%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Munich's highest temperature April 7 reflects sharp divergence in global forecast models amid Europe's lingering early-April cold snap, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing spreads of 13–27°C based on the latest runs. A recent model update yesterday projecting up to 27°C under a building high-pressure ridge from the Azores has boosted the 23°C+ outcome to 25.5% market-implied probability, while persistent cold air advection risks from polar remnants sustain 13°C or below near 24%. Mid-range bids around 16–21°C capture typical spring variability, differentiated by frontal timing and cloud cover; historical April highs average 13–14°C per DWD records. Daily DWD bulletins and fresh ECMWF/GFS outputs through April 6 will sharpen resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
音量
$298終了日
2026/04/07マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Munich's highest temperature April 7 reflects sharp divergence in global forecast models amid Europe's lingering early-April cold snap, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing spreads of 13–27°C based on the latest runs. A recent model update yesterday projecting up to 27°C under a building high-pressure ridge from the Azores has boosted the 23°C+ outcome to 25.5% market-implied probability, while persistent cold air advection risks from polar remnants sustain 13°C or below near 24%. Mid-range bids around 16–21°C capture typical spring variability, differentiated by frontal timing and cloud cover; historical April highs average 13–14°C per DWD records. Daily DWD bulletins and fresh ECMWF/GFS outputs through April 6 will sharpen resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$298終了日
2026/04/07マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETTrader consensus on Munich's highest temperature April 7 reflects sharp divergence in global forecast models amid Europe's lingering early-April cold snap, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles showing spreads of 13–27°C based on the latest runs. A recent model update yesterday projecting up to 27°C under a building high-pressure ridge from the Azores has boosted the 23°C+ outcome to 25.5% market-implied probability, while persistent cold air advection risks from polar remnants sustain 13°C or below near 24%. Mid-range bids around 16–21°C capture typical spring variability, differentiated by frontal timing and cloud cover; historical April highs average 13–14°C per DWD records. Daily DWD bulletins and fresh ECMWF/GFS outputs through April 6 will sharpen resolution criteria.
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