As of mid-April 2026, the U.S. has logged 311 preliminary tornadoes year-to-date according to Storm Prediction Center data—well above the typical early-season pace—primarily due to major outbreaks like the March 10–12 event that spawned 106 twisters amid elevated convective available potential energy (CAPE) and vertical wind shear from a wavy jet stream. This hot start, including an April 12–15 outbreak adding 14 more with an EF3 in Wisconsin, has propelled trader consensus toward totals at or above the 1991–2020 average of 1,225, as reflected in the 36.5% implied probability for 1250+. ENSO-neutral conditions support standard severe weather patterns through peak spring months, though forecast models diverge on May–June intensity; watch upcoming Storm Prediction Center outlooks for shifts in shear and instability trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1250以上 37%
1000〜1049 20.8%
1150〜1199 7.3%
950未満 7%
$64,519 Vol.
$64,519 Vol.
2027/01/10
950未満
7%
950〜999
4%
1000〜1049
21%
1050〜1099
6%
1100〜1149
4%
1150〜1199
7%
1200〜1249
11%
1250以上
37%
1250以上 37%
1000〜1049 20.8%
1150〜1199 7.3%
950未満 7%
$64,519 Vol.
$64,519 Vol.
2027/01/10
950未満
$21,622 Vol.
7%
950〜999
$2,049 Vol.
4%
1000〜1049
$1,534 Vol.
21%
1050〜1099
$7,106 Vol.
6%
1100〜1149
$1,375 Vol.
4%
1150〜1199
$1,708 Vol.
7%
1200〜1249
$14,432 Vol.
11%
1250以上
$14,692 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.As of mid-April 2026, the U.S. has logged 311 preliminary tornadoes year-to-date according to Storm Prediction Center data—well above the typical early-season pace—primarily due to major outbreaks like the March 10–12 event that spawned 106 twisters amid elevated convective available potential energy (CAPE) and vertical wind shear from a wavy jet stream. This hot start, including an April 12–15 outbreak adding 14 more with an EF3 in Wisconsin, has propelled trader consensus toward totals at or above the 1991–2020 average of 1,225, as reflected in the 36.5% implied probability for 1250+. ENSO-neutral conditions support standard severe weather patterns through peak spring months, though forecast models diverge on May–June intensity; watch upcoming Storm Prediction Center outlooks for shifts in shear and instability trends.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
音量
$64,519終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.As of mid-April 2026, the U.S. has logged 311 preliminary tornadoes year-to-date according to Storm Prediction Center data—well above the typical early-season pace—primarily due to major outbreaks like the March 10–12 event that spawned 106 twisters amid elevated convective available potential energy (CAPE) and vertical wind shear from a wavy jet stream. This hot start, including an April 12–15 outbreak adding 14 more with an EF3 in Wisconsin, has propelled trader consensus toward totals at or above the 1991–2020 average of 1,225, as reflected in the 36.5% implied probability for 1250+. ENSO-neutral conditions support standard severe weather patterns through peak spring months, though forecast models diverge on May–June intensity; watch upcoming Storm Prediction Center outlooks for shifts in shear and instability trends.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
音量
$64,519終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...As of mid-April 2026, the U.S. has logged 311 preliminary tornadoes year-to-date according to Storm Prediction Center data—well above the typical early-season pace—primarily due to major outbreaks like the March 10–12 event that spawned 106 twisters amid elevated convective available potential energy (CAPE) and vertical wind shear from a wavy jet stream. This hot start, including an April 12–15 outbreak adding 14 more with an EF3 in Wisconsin, has propelled trader consensus toward totals at or above the 1991–2020 average of 1,225, as reflected in the 36.5% implied probability for 1250+. ENSO-neutral conditions support standard severe weather patterns through peak spring months, though forecast models diverge on May–June intensity; watch upcoming Storm Prediction Center outlooks for shifts in shear and instability trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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