Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the extreme rarity of moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes, with none occurring globally since the 2011 Tōhoku event (Mw 9.1), as confirmed by USGS catalogs. The most recent major event, a Mw 8.8 quake off Kamchatka in July 2025, fell short of the threshold despite its size. Subduction zones like Cascadia (10-15% chance of Mw ~9 in 50 years per USGS) and others show no elevated strain buildup or precursors warranting imminent risk, per recent monitoring. With under nine months remaining until 2027 resolution, the brief window further suppresses odds, aligning market-implied 89.5% "No" probability with historical frequency of roughly one such event per 20-50 years. Upcoming USGS seismic updates could shift sentiment if unusual activity emerges.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$177,673 거래량
$177,673 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$177,673 거래량
$177,673 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the extreme rarity of moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes, with none occurring globally since the 2011 Tōhoku event (Mw 9.1), as confirmed by USGS catalogs. The most recent major event, a Mw 8.8 quake off Kamchatka in July 2025, fell short of the threshold despite its size. Subduction zones like Cascadia (10-15% chance of Mw ~9 in 50 years per USGS) and others show no elevated strain buildup or precursors warranting imminent risk, per recent monitoring. With under nine months remaining until 2027 resolution, the brief window further suppresses odds, aligning market-implied 89.5% "No" probability with historical frequency of roughly one such event per 20-50 years. Upcoming USGS seismic updates could shift sentiment if unusual activity emerges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
거래량
$177,673종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the extreme rarity of moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes, with none occurring globally since the 2011 Tōhoku event (Mw 9.1), as confirmed by USGS catalogs. The most recent major event, a Mw 8.8 quake off Kamchatka in July 2025, fell short of the threshold despite its size. Subduction zones like Cascadia (10-15% chance of Mw ~9 in 50 years per USGS) and others show no elevated strain buildup or precursors warranting imminent risk, per recent monitoring. With under nine months remaining until 2027 resolution, the brief window further suppresses odds, aligning market-implied 89.5% "No" probability with historical frequency of roughly one such event per 20-50 years. Upcoming USGS seismic updates could shift sentiment if unusual activity emerges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$177,673종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the extreme rarity of moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes, with none occurring globally since the 2011 Tōhoku event (Mw 9.1), as confirmed by USGS catalogs. The most recent major event, a Mw 8.8 quake off Kamchatka in July 2025, fell short of the threshold despite its size. Subduction zones like Cascadia (10-15% chance of Mw ~9 in 50 years per USGS) and others show no elevated strain buildup or precursors warranting imminent risk, per recent monitoring. With under nine months remaining until 2027 resolution, the brief window further suppresses odds, aligning market-implied 89.5% "No" probability with historical frequency of roughly one such event per 20-50 years. Upcoming USGS seismic updates could shift sentiment if unusual activity emerges.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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