Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's April 17 high temperature, with 27–29°C outcomes leading at 19–22.5% implied probabilities amid model spread from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), GFS, and ECMWF ensembles. CMA's latest projection of 26°C under moderate rain and cloudy skies—echoing today's 23–29°C cloudy conditions—pulls odds lower, while drier scenarios in some GFS runs support 29°C via reduced cloud cover limiting insolation suppression. Differentiating factors include precipitation timing, which could trigger evaporative cooling, versus persistent urban heat island amplification in this subtropical hub; April climatology averages 26°C highs, but a +3°C monthly anomaly adds upside risk. Hourly CMA updates will refine resolution before observations finalize.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
29°C 27%
26°C or below 21%
27°C 21%
28°C 20%
신규
신규
2026.04.17
26°C or below
21%
27°C
21%
28°C
20%
29°C
27%
30°C
10%
31°C
7%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
1%
29°C 27%
26°C or below 21%
27°C 21%
28°C 20%
신규
신규
2026.04.17
26°C or below
$418 거래량
21%
27°C
$171 거래량
21%
28°C
$207 거래량
20%
29°C
$206 거래량
27%
30°C
$323 거래량
10%
31°C
$384 거래량
7%
32°C
$816 거래량
2%
33°C
$604 거래량
1%
34°C
$1,917 거래량
<1%
35°C
$1,670 거래량
<1%
36°C or higher
$1,350 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's April 17 high temperature, with 27–29°C outcomes leading at 19–22.5% implied probabilities amid model spread from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), GFS, and ECMWF ensembles. CMA's latest projection of 26°C under moderate rain and cloudy skies—echoing today's 23–29°C cloudy conditions—pulls odds lower, while drier scenarios in some GFS runs support 29°C via reduced cloud cover limiting insolation suppression. Differentiating factors include precipitation timing, which could trigger evaporative cooling, versus persistent urban heat island amplification in this subtropical hub; April climatology averages 26°C highs, but a +3°C monthly anomaly adds upside risk. Hourly CMA updates will refine resolution before observations finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
거래량
$8,065종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's April 17 high temperature, with 27–29°C outcomes leading at 19–22.5% implied probabilities amid model spread from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), GFS, and ECMWF ensembles. CMA's latest projection of 26°C under moderate rain and cloudy skies—echoing today's 23–29°C cloudy conditions—pulls odds lower, while drier scenarios in some GFS runs support 29°C via reduced cloud cover limiting insolation suppression. Differentiating factors include precipitation timing, which could trigger evaporative cooling, versus persistent urban heat island amplification in this subtropical hub; April climatology averages 26°C highs, but a +3°C monthly anomaly adds upside risk. Hourly CMA updates will refine resolution before observations finalize.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$8,065종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's April 17 high temperature, with 27–29°C outcomes leading at 19–22.5% implied probabilities amid model spread from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), GFS, and ECMWF ensembles. CMA's latest projection of 26°C under moderate rain and cloudy skies—echoing today's 23–29°C cloudy conditions—pulls odds lower, while drier scenarios in some GFS runs support 29°C via reduced cloud cover limiting insolation suppression. Differentiating factors include precipitation timing, which could trigger evaporative cooling, versus persistent urban heat island amplification in this subtropical hub; April climatology averages 26°C highs, but a +3°C monthly anomaly adds upside risk. Hourly CMA updates will refine resolution before observations finalize.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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