Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities peaking at 22.5% for 29°C amid southerly winds advecting warm, moist air from the South China Sea, pushing recent highs near 31°C on April 16. However, increasing cloud cover and afternoon shower risks—per China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF guidance—could cap peaks at 27-28°C by reducing solar insolation, while drier scenarios allow 29°C. April 2026 has averaged 3.5°C above normal (24.9°C mean), with highs of 29.6°C earlier this month. Key differentiators include convective timing and boundary layer mixing; new GFS/ECMWF runs overnight and morning soundings will refine odds before resolution on official station data.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
29°C 23%
26°C or below 20%
27°C 20%
28°C 20%
신규
신규
2026.04.17
26°C or below
17%
27°C
20%
28°C
20%
29°C
23%
30°C
10%
31°C
10%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
29°C 23%
26°C or below 20%
27°C 20%
28°C 20%
신규
신규
2026.04.17
26°C or below
$418 거래량
17%
27°C
$171 거래량
20%
28°C
$202 거래량
20%
29°C
$176 거래량
23%
30°C
$314 거래량
10%
31°C
$384 거래량
10%
32°C
$796 거래량
2%
33°C
$584 거래량
1%
34°C
$1,917 거래량
<1%
35°C
$1,650 거래량
<1%
36°C or higher
$1,330 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities peaking at 22.5% for 29°C amid southerly winds advecting warm, moist air from the South China Sea, pushing recent highs near 31°C on April 16. However, increasing cloud cover and afternoon shower risks—per China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF guidance—could cap peaks at 27-28°C by reducing solar insolation, while drier scenarios allow 29°C. April 2026 has averaged 3.5°C above normal (24.9°C mean), with highs of 29.6°C earlier this month. Key differentiators include convective timing and boundary layer mixing; new GFS/ECMWF runs overnight and morning soundings will refine odds before resolution on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
거래량
$7,942종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities peaking at 22.5% for 29°C amid southerly winds advecting warm, moist air from the South China Sea, pushing recent highs near 31°C on April 16. However, increasing cloud cover and afternoon shower risks—per China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF guidance—could cap peaks at 27-28°C by reducing solar insolation, while drier scenarios allow 29°C. April 2026 has averaged 3.5°C above normal (24.9°C mean), with highs of 29.6°C earlier this month. Key differentiators include convective timing and boundary layer mixing; new GFS/ECMWF runs overnight and morning soundings will refine odds before resolution on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$7,942종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities peaking at 22.5% for 29°C amid southerly winds advecting warm, moist air from the South China Sea, pushing recent highs near 31°C on April 16. However, increasing cloud cover and afternoon shower risks—per China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF guidance—could cap peaks at 27-28°C by reducing solar insolation, while drier scenarios allow 29°C. April 2026 has averaged 3.5°C above normal (24.9°C mean), with highs of 29.6°C earlier this month. Key differentiators include convective timing and boundary layer mixing; new GFS/ECMWF runs overnight and morning soundings will refine odds before resolution on official station data.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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