Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% probability for Madrid's highest temperature reaching 27°C on April 17, directly mirroring AEMET's latest municipal forecast projecting that exact maximum, while ECMWF and GFS ensemble means cluster around 26.5°C with spreads of 26–28°C explaining the tight race among these outcomes. Recent observations at the Retiro station underscore a warming trend, with 23.9°C on April 15 rising to about 25°C on April 16 amid a high-pressure ridge over Iberia advecting warm continental air and suppressing clouds for enhanced solar heating. Above-seasonal norms (April historical average ~18°C) reflect model consensus on light winds and dry conditions, though small-scale urban effects and final soundings could nudge the peak; overnight forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF may shift odds further.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Madrid on April 17?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 17?
27°C 42%
26°C 24%
28°C 21%
25°C 4.0%
신규
$19,482 거래량
신규
$19,482 거래량
2026.04.17
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
24%
27°C
42%
28°C
21%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
1%
27°C 42%
26°C 24%
28°C 21%
25°C 4.0%
신규
$19,482 거래량
신규
$19,482 거래량
2026.04.17
20°C or below
$1,124 거래량
<1%
21°C
$1,476 거래량
<1%
22°C
$3,739 거래량
1%
23°C
$2,417 거래량
1%
24°C
$2,704 거래량
1%
25°C
$1,874 거래량
4%
26°C
$1,109 거래량
24%
27°C
$1,502 거래량
42%
28°C
$882 거래량
21%
29°C
$1,346 거래량
2%
30°C or higher
$1,329 거래량
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% probability for Madrid's highest temperature reaching 27°C on April 17, directly mirroring AEMET's latest municipal forecast projecting that exact maximum, while ECMWF and GFS ensemble means cluster around 26.5°C with spreads of 26–28°C explaining the tight race among these outcomes. Recent observations at the Retiro station underscore a warming trend, with 23.9°C on April 15 rising to about 25°C on April 16 amid a high-pressure ridge over Iberia advecting warm continental air and suppressing clouds for enhanced solar heating. Above-seasonal norms (April historical average ~18°C) reflect model consensus on light winds and dry conditions, though small-scale urban effects and final soundings could nudge the peak; overnight forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF may shift odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Apr 15, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
거래량
$19,482종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Apr 15, 2026, 12:11 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% probability for Madrid's highest temperature reaching 27°C on April 17, directly mirroring AEMET's latest municipal forecast projecting that exact maximum, while ECMWF and GFS ensemble means cluster around 26.5°C with spreads of 26–28°C explaining the tight race among these outcomes. Recent observations at the Retiro station underscore a warming trend, with 23.9°C on April 15 rising to about 25°C on April 16 amid a high-pressure ridge over Iberia advecting warm continental air and suppressing clouds for enhanced solar heating. Above-seasonal norms (April historical average ~18°C) reflect model consensus on light winds and dry conditions, though small-scale urban effects and final soundings could nudge the peak; overnight forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF may shift odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$19,482종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Apr 15, 2026, 12:11 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% probability for Madrid's highest temperature reaching 27°C on April 17, directly mirroring AEMET's latest municipal forecast projecting that exact maximum, while ECMWF and GFS ensemble means cluster around 26.5°C with spreads of 26–28°C explaining the tight race among these outcomes. Recent observations at the Retiro station underscore a warming trend, with 23.9°C on April 15 rising to about 25°C on April 16 amid a high-pressure ridge over Iberia advecting warm continental air and suppressing clouds for enhanced solar heating. Above-seasonal norms (April historical average ~18°C) reflect model consensus on light winds and dry conditions, though small-scale urban effects and final soundings could nudge the peak; overnight forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF may shift odds further.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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