Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.4% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity and current unfavorable conditions confirmed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of April 16, only scattered showers persist across the basin with no tropical cyclones or disturbances, per NHC's latest Tropical Weather Discussion; routine outlooks resume May 15. Historically, since 1851, fewer than five Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 due to cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C, strong upper-level wind shear, and stable atmosphere inhibiting organization. Forecasts like Colorado State University's April update predict below-normal 2026 activity amid potential El Niño transition. Realistic shifts would require anomalous rapid warming and shear collapse, unforecasted by models, with resolution nearing as monitoring intensifies.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$41,738 거래량
$41,738 거래량
2026.05.31
예
$41,738 거래량
$41,738 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.4% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity and current unfavorable conditions confirmed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of April 16, only scattered showers persist across the basin with no tropical cyclones or disturbances, per NHC's latest Tropical Weather Discussion; routine outlooks resume May 15. Historically, since 1851, fewer than five Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 due to cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C, strong upper-level wind shear, and stable atmosphere inhibiting organization. Forecasts like Colorado State University's April update predict below-normal 2026 activity amid potential El Niño transition. Realistic shifts would require anomalous rapid warming and shear collapse, unforecasted by models, with resolution nearing as monitoring intensifies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
마켓 개설일: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
거래량
$41,738종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.4% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity and current unfavorable conditions confirmed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of April 16, only scattered showers persist across the basin with no tropical cyclones or disturbances, per NHC's latest Tropical Weather Discussion; routine outlooks resume May 15. Historically, since 1851, fewer than five Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 due to cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C, strong upper-level wind shear, and stable atmosphere inhibiting organization. Forecasts like Colorado State University's April update predict below-normal 2026 activity amid potential El Niño transition. Realistic shifts would require anomalous rapid warming and shear collapse, unforecasted by models, with resolution nearing as monitoring intensifies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
거래량
$41,738종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.4% implied probability for no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by climatological rarity and current unfavorable conditions confirmed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of April 16, only scattered showers persist across the basin with no tropical cyclones or disturbances, per NHC's latest Tropical Weather Discussion; routine outlooks resume May 15. Historically, since 1851, fewer than five Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 due to cool sea surface temperatures below 26.5°C, strong upper-level wind shear, and stable atmosphere inhibiting organization. Forecasts like Colorado State University's April update predict below-normal 2026 activity amid potential El Niño transition. Realistic shifts would require anomalous rapid warming and shear collapse, unforecasted by models, with resolution nearing as monitoring intensifies.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문