Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward mid-80s highs for Houston on March 26, with 86-87°F leading at 30% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA and NWS model ensembles showing a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and clear skies. The GFS leans slightly cooler at 83-84°F, while ECMWF guidance pushes 86-87°F amid southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture, explaining the tight race with 82-83°F (27.5%) and 84-85°F (23.5%). Above-normal temps—versus March climatological average of 78°F—hinge on minimal cloud interference, though afternoon cumulus could cap peaks, underscoring model spread as the key differentiator amid low precipitation risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Houston on March 26?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 26?
84-85°F 30%
86-87°F 30%
82-83°F 28%
80-81°F 18%
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
6%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
28%
84-85°F
24%
86-87°F
30%
88-89°F
19%
90-91°F
3%
92°F or higher
1%
84-85°F 30%
86-87°F 30%
82-83°F 28%
80-81°F 18%
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
6%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
28%
84-85°F
24%
86-87°F
30%
88-89°F
19%
90-91°F
3%
92°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward mid-80s highs for Houston on March 26, with 86-87°F leading at 30% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA and NWS model ensembles showing a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and clear skies. The GFS leans slightly cooler at 83-84°F, while ECMWF guidance pushes 86-87°F amid southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture, explaining the tight race with 82-83°F (27.5%) and 84-85°F (23.5%). Above-normal temps—versus March climatological average of 78°F—hinge on minimal cloud interference, though afternoon cumulus could cap peaks, underscoring model spread as the key differentiator amid low precipitation risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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