Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tel Aviv high of 17°C (36%) or 16°C (34%), driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS models, which converge on mid-teens Celsius amid a cool northerly flow and increased cloud cover from a low-pressure trough over the eastern Mediterranean. Historical March data from the Israel Meteorological Service shows average highs near 20°C, but current synoptic patterns—featuring sea breezes and light showers—suppress peaks, with model spreads of ±1-2°C differentiating outcomes; 18°C (12%) reflects warmer outlier runs, while sub-16°C odds remain low absent stronger cold advection. Traders eye tomorrow's 00Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 26?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 26?
17°C 36%
16°C 30%
18°C 13%
15°C 9%
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
9%
16°C
30%
17°C
36%
18°C
13%
19°C
3%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
<1%
17°C 36%
16°C 30%
18°C 13%
15°C 9%
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
9%
16°C
30%
17°C
36%
18°C
13%
19°C
3%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tel Aviv high of 17°C (36%) or 16°C (34%), driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and GFS models, which converge on mid-teens Celsius amid a cool northerly flow and increased cloud cover from a low-pressure trough over the eastern Mediterranean. Historical March data from the Israel Meteorological Service shows average highs near 20°C, but current synoptic patterns—featuring sea breezes and light showers—suppress peaks, with model spreads of ±1-2°C differentiating outcomes; 18°C (12%) reflects warmer outlier runs, while sub-16°C odds remain low absent stronger cold advection. Traders eye tomorrow's 00Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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