Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Wuhan high of 18°C (25.5% implied probability), closely trailed by 17°C (19.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting maximums in the 17-19°C range for March 26. These models account for southerly winds advecting mild air from the Yangtze basin, tempered by lingering stratiform clouds from a recent frontal passage observed on March 24-25, which recorded highs near 17°C. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover evolution: partial clearing could push toward 19°C (14.0%), while persistent overcast favors 17°C; historical late-March norms average 16-18°C, with low odds for extremes reflecting stable synoptic patterns per China Meteorological Administration updates. Key watch: 00Z model runs tonight for refined boundary layer mixing estimates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 26?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 26?
18°C 26%
17°C 20%
19°C 15%
20°C 11%
$23,487 Vol.
$23,487 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
3%
16°C
9%
17°C
20%
18°C
26%
19°C
15%
20°C
11%
21°C or higher
6%
18°C 26%
17°C 20%
19°C 15%
20°C 11%
$23,487 Vol.
$23,487 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
3%
16°C
9%
17°C
20%
18°C
26%
19°C
15%
20°C
11%
21°C or higher
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Wuhan high of 18°C (25.5% implied probability), closely trailed by 17°C (19.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting maximums in the 17-19°C range for March 26. These models account for southerly winds advecting mild air from the Yangtze basin, tempered by lingering stratiform clouds from a recent frontal passage observed on March 24-25, which recorded highs near 17°C. Differentiation hinges on cloud cover evolution: partial clearing could push toward 19°C (14.0%), while persistent overcast favors 17°C; historical late-March norms average 16-18°C, with low odds for extremes reflecting stable synoptic patterns per China Meteorological Administration updates. Key watch: 00Z model runs tonight for refined boundary layer mixing estimates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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