Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive the tight race among 21-24°C outcomes for Wuhan's March 27 high, with model means clustering at 22-23°C under persistent southerly winds and ample solar insolation following a recent warm-up from mid-20s earlier in the week. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—clearer skies in European models boost 23-24°C odds, while GFS hints at afternoon cumulus capping peaks at 21°C—and urban heat island effects amplifying diurnal maxima by 1-2°C above rural stations. Historical March 27 highs average 18°C, but anthropogenic warming and low precipitation probability (under 20%) favor the upper cluster, though frontal timing uncertainty keeps 25°C+ at just 10%. Traders eye CMA's 48-hour update for resolution clarity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 27?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 27?
22°C 23%
23°C 23%
21°C 20%
24°C 19%
15°C or below
1%
16°C
6%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
9%
20°C
14%
21°C
20%
22°C
23%
23°C
23%
24°C
19%
25°C or higher
10%
22°C 23%
23°C 23%
21°C 20%
24°C 19%
15°C or below
1%
16°C
6%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
9%
20°C
14%
21°C
20%
22°C
23%
23°C
23%
24°C
19%
25°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:17 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive the tight race among 21-24°C outcomes for Wuhan's March 27 high, with model means clustering at 22-23°C under persistent southerly winds and ample solar insolation following a recent warm-up from mid-20s earlier in the week. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—clearer skies in European models boost 23-24°C odds, while GFS hints at afternoon cumulus capping peaks at 21°C—and urban heat island effects amplifying diurnal maxima by 1-2°C above rural stations. Historical March 27 highs average 18°C, but anthropogenic warming and low precipitation probability (under 20%) favor the upper cluster, though frontal timing uncertainty keeps 25°C+ at just 10%. Traders eye CMA's 48-hour update for resolution clarity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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