The closely matched implied probabilities for 13°C (35.5%) and 12°C (33.5%) highs in Istanbul on April 17 reflect short-range forecast uncertainty captured by ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads, projecting maximum temperatures of 12-14°C under partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Cooler-than-average readings—below the mid-April climatological norm of 17°C per historical data from official stations—stem from persistent cloud cover reducing solar insolation and modest northerly temperature advection, though urban heat island effects in central Istanbul could nudge peaks higher. Model disagreements on boundary layer development and afternoon clearing differentiate outcomes; traders await Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and 00Z runs for refinement, with resolution based on verified airport observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
13°C 36%
12°C 34%
14°C 21%
11°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
4%
11°C
10%
12°C
34%
13°C
36%
14°C
21%
15°C
4%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 36%
12°C 34%
14°C 21%
11°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
8°C or below
$1,165 交易量
<1%
9°C
$1,326 交易量
<1%
10°C
$948 交易量
4%
11°C
$1,041 交易量
10%
12°C
$298 交易量
34%
13°C
$363 交易量
36%
14°C
$276 交易量
21%
15°C
$728 交易量
4%
16°C
$697 交易量
1%
17°C
$1,047 交易量
<1%
18°C or higher
$1,209 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched implied probabilities for 13°C (35.5%) and 12°C (33.5%) highs in Istanbul on April 17 reflect short-range forecast uncertainty captured by ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads, projecting maximum temperatures of 12-14°C under partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Cooler-than-average readings—below the mid-April climatological norm of 17°C per historical data from official stations—stem from persistent cloud cover reducing solar insolation and modest northerly temperature advection, though urban heat island effects in central Istanbul could nudge peaks higher. Model disagreements on boundary layer development and afternoon clearing differentiate outcomes; traders await Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and 00Z runs for refinement, with resolution based on verified airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
交易量
$9,099結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched implied probabilities for 13°C (35.5%) and 12°C (33.5%) highs in Istanbul on April 17 reflect short-range forecast uncertainty captured by ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads, projecting maximum temperatures of 12-14°C under partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Cooler-than-average readings—below the mid-April climatological norm of 17°C per historical data from official stations—stem from persistent cloud cover reducing solar insolation and modest northerly temperature advection, though urban heat island effects in central Istanbul could nudge peaks higher. Model disagreements on boundary layer development and afternoon clearing differentiate outcomes; traders await Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and 00Z runs for refinement, with resolution based on verified airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$9,099結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched implied probabilities for 13°C (35.5%) and 12°C (33.5%) highs in Istanbul on April 17 reflect short-range forecast uncertainty captured by ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads, projecting maximum temperatures of 12-14°C under partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Cooler-than-average readings—below the mid-April climatological norm of 17°C per historical data from official stations—stem from persistent cloud cover reducing solar insolation and modest northerly temperature advection, though urban heat island effects in central Istanbul could nudge peaks higher. Model disagreements on boundary layer development and afternoon clearing differentiate outcomes; traders await Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and 00Z runs for refinement, with resolution based on verified airport observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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