Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 13°C (40.5% implied probability) in Istanbul today, driven by the latest observational data and forecast model ensembles from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ECMWF, which indicate persistent northerly winds advecting cooler continental air while extensive cloud cover suppresses daytime heating. Morning temperatures hovered around 7–8°C under overcast skies, with northeast winds at 10–15 mph limiting insolation and capping the daily maximum in the 12–14°C range—below the mid-April climatological average of 15–16°C. Recent developments include a multi-day cool anomaly from a stalled upper-level trough, as seen in GFS updates over the past 24 hours. Resolution hinges on official MGM station data by midnight; monitor afternoon satellite imagery for any clearing that could nudge toward 14°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 15?
13°C 35%
12°C 32%
14°C 21%
11°C 5.0%
$26,236 交易量
$26,236 交易量
2026-04-15
10°C or below
1%
11°C
5%
12°C
32%
13°C
35%
14°C
21%
15°C
4%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
13°C 35%
12°C 32%
14°C 21%
11°C 5.0%
$26,236 交易量
$26,236 交易量
2026-04-15
10°C or below
$2,730 交易量
1%
11°C
$2,994 交易量
5%
12°C
$693 交易量
32%
13°C
$1,143 交易量
35%
14°C
$841 交易量
21%
15°C
$4,326 交易量
4%
16°C
$4,638 交易量
2%
17°C
$4,129 交易量
2%
18°C
$1,592 交易量
1%
19°C
$676 交易量
<1%
20°C or higher
$2,494 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 13°C (40.5% implied probability) in Istanbul today, driven by the latest observational data and forecast model ensembles from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ECMWF, which indicate persistent northerly winds advecting cooler continental air while extensive cloud cover suppresses daytime heating. Morning temperatures hovered around 7–8°C under overcast skies, with northeast winds at 10–15 mph limiting insolation and capping the daily maximum in the 12–14°C range—below the mid-April climatological average of 15–16°C. Recent developments include a multi-day cool anomaly from a stalled upper-level trough, as seen in GFS updates over the past 24 hours. Resolution hinges on official MGM station data by midnight; monitor afternoon satellite imagery for any clearing that could nudge toward 14°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
交易量
$26,236結束日期
2026-04-15市場開放時間
Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 13°C (40.5% implied probability) in Istanbul today, driven by the latest observational data and forecast model ensembles from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ECMWF, which indicate persistent northerly winds advecting cooler continental air while extensive cloud cover suppresses daytime heating. Morning temperatures hovered around 7–8°C under overcast skies, with northeast winds at 10–15 mph limiting insolation and capping the daily maximum in the 12–14°C range—below the mid-April climatological average of 15–16°C. Recent developments include a multi-day cool anomaly from a stalled upper-level trough, as seen in GFS updates over the past 24 hours. Resolution hinges on official MGM station data by midnight; monitor afternoon satellite imagery for any clearing that could nudge toward 14°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$26,236結束日期
2026-04-15市場開放時間
Apr 13, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 13°C (40.5% implied probability) in Istanbul today, driven by the latest observational data and forecast model ensembles from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and ECMWF, which indicate persistent northerly winds advecting cooler continental air while extensive cloud cover suppresses daytime heating. Morning temperatures hovered around 7–8°C under overcast skies, with northeast winds at 10–15 mph limiting insolation and capping the daily maximum in the 12–14°C range—below the mid-April climatological average of 15–16°C. Recent developments include a multi-day cool anomaly from a stalled upper-level trough, as seen in GFS updates over the past 24 hours. Resolution hinges on official MGM station data by midnight; monitor afternoon satellite imagery for any clearing that could nudge toward 14°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions