Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 16, with 26–28°C outcomes at 50% implied probabilities driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) guidance projecting maxima in the 26–28°C range amid partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 14 km/h. Recent SMN updates as of April 14 show similar conditions persisting, with stable subsidence and low humidity favoring daytime heating at the high-elevation Benito Juárez International Airport site, where urban heat island effects can add 1–2°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover potentially reducing insolation by 1°C and model spreads (GFS/ECMWF consensus ~26°C), against historical April averages of 26°C. New SMN bulletins and model runs expected April 15 could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 16?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 16?
29°C 37%
28°C 30%
26°C 16%
27°C 16%
22°C or below
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
7%
25°C
10%
26°C
17%
27°C
16%
28°C
30%
29°C
37%
30°C
12%
31°C
7%
32°C or higher
4%
29°C 37%
28°C 30%
26°C 16%
27°C 16%
22°C or below
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
7%
25°C
10%
26°C
17%
27°C
16%
28°C
30%
29°C
37%
30°C
12%
31°C
7%
32°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 14, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 16, with 26–28°C outcomes at 50% implied probabilities driven by the latest Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) guidance projecting maxima in the 26–28°C range amid partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds around 14 km/h. Recent SMN updates as of April 14 show similar conditions persisting, with stable subsidence and low humidity favoring daytime heating at the high-elevation Benito Juárez International Airport site, where urban heat island effects can add 1–2°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover potentially reducing insolation by 1°C and model spreads (GFS/ECMWF consensus ~26°C), against historical April averages of 26°C. New SMN bulletins and model runs expected April 15 could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions