**PAGASA's latest forecast projects a 34°C high at the Science Garden station in Quezon City for April 15, amid a high-pressure ridge extending easterly winds that suppress clouds and maximize solar insolation during the Philippines' peak dry season.** Recent observations exceeding guidance—34.4°C on April 13 and Luzon stations topping 36°C on April 14—have elevated trader sentiment for 39°C or higher to 43% implied probability, factoring in Manila's urban heat island amplification and historical April extremes near 39°C. Mid-30s outcomes hover at 28-32%, underscoring model uncertainty near resolution; watch PAGASA's 5 PM bulletin and hourly data for shifts in peak heating potential under 0% rain chance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Manila on April 15?
Highest temperature in Manila on April 15?
32°C 24%
33°C 24%
34°C 24%
36°C 24%
29°C or below
5%
30°C
2%
31°C
2%
32°C
24%
33°C
24%
34°C
24%
35°C
11%
36°C
24%
37°C
11%
38°C
24%
39°C or higher
24%
32°C 24%
33°C 24%
34°C 24%
36°C 24%
29°C or below
5%
30°C
2%
31°C
2%
32°C
24%
33°C
24%
34°C
24%
35°C
11%
36°C
24%
37°C
11%
38°C
24%
39°C or higher
24%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
**PAGASA's latest forecast projects a 34°C high at the Science Garden station in Quezon City for April 15, amid a high-pressure ridge extending easterly winds that suppress clouds and maximize solar insolation during the Philippines' peak dry season.** Recent observations exceeding guidance—34.4°C on April 13 and Luzon stations topping 36°C on April 14—have elevated trader sentiment for 39°C or higher to 43% implied probability, factoring in Manila's urban heat island amplification and historical April extremes near 39°C. Mid-30s outcomes hover at 28-32%, underscoring model uncertainty near resolution; watch PAGASA's 5 PM bulletin and hourly data for shifts in peak heating potential under 0% rain chance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions