Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models project Chicago's highest temperature on April 16 in the upper 60s to mid-70s°F at O'Hare International Airport, mirroring the tight trader consensus with 76-77°F leading at 29% implied probability, closely trailed by 68-69°F (25.5%) and 70-71°F (22%). This positioning stems from a recent warm surge peaking at 81°F on April 12—well above the 59.2°F normal—and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center spring 2026 outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across the Midwest under ENSO-neutral conditions. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing depth, southwest warm air advection strength, and afternoon cloud cover variability from potential weak disturbances, introducing 8-10°F forecast uncertainty. Watch for 12z GFS/ECMWF updates and NWS Chicago forecast discussion later today.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chicago on April 16?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 16?
72-73°F 22%
68-69°F 15%
70-71°F 14%
74-75°F 14%
61°F or below
1%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
13%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
14%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
14%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
2%
80°F or higher
2%
72-73°F 22%
68-69°F 15%
70-71°F 14%
74-75°F 14%
61°F or below
1%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
13%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
14%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
14%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
2%
80°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models project Chicago's highest temperature on April 16 in the upper 60s to mid-70s°F at O'Hare International Airport, mirroring the tight trader consensus with 76-77°F leading at 29% implied probability, closely trailed by 68-69°F (25.5%) and 70-71°F (22%). This positioning stems from a recent warm surge peaking at 81°F on April 12—well above the 59.2°F normal—and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center spring 2026 outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across the Midwest under ENSO-neutral conditions. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing depth, southwest warm air advection strength, and afternoon cloud cover variability from potential weak disturbances, introducing 8-10°F forecast uncertainty. Watch for 12z GFS/ECMWF updates and NWS Chicago forecast discussion later today.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions