Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight National Weather Service forecasts pinning New York City's Central Park high temperature near 84-86°F today, driven by a potent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and southerly warm air advection under mostly sunny skies. The 32% implied probability for 86-87°F edges out 29% for 84-85°F due to recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF showing slight upward trends in peak afternoon heating, though ensembles reveal uncertainty from potential isolated clouds, sea breeze influences, or minor wind shifts that could limit maxima. This unseasonal warmth nears the April 15 record of 87°F set in 1941; real-time observations through late afternoon will clarify resolution amid inherent forecast divergences.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in NYC on April 15?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 15?
86-87°F 32%
84-85°F 31%
88-89°F 19%
82-83°F 12%
$72,091 交易量
$72,091 交易量
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
31%
86-87°F
32%
88-89°F
19%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 32%
84-85°F 31%
88-89°F 19%
82-83°F 12%
$72,091 交易量
$72,091 交易量
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
31%
86-87°F
32%
88-89°F
19%
90-91°F
7%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight National Weather Service forecasts pinning New York City's Central Park high temperature near 84-86°F today, driven by a potent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and southerly warm air advection under mostly sunny skies. The 32% implied probability for 86-87°F edges out 29% for 84-85°F due to recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF showing slight upward trends in peak afternoon heating, though ensembles reveal uncertainty from potential isolated clouds, sea breeze influences, or minor wind shifts that could limit maxima. This unseasonal warmth nears the April 15 record of 87°F set in 1941; real-time observations through late afternoon will clarify resolution amid inherent forecast divergences.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions