Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models and global ensembles like ECMWF project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 16 near 20°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds, anchoring trader consensus at 36.5% implied probability for that outcome and 24.5% for 19°C. Recent observations show April 13-14 highs around 20°C (68°F) amid mild spring conditions following a frontal passage, aligning with mid-April climatology of 18-22°C boosted by Tokyo's urban heat island effect. Uncertainty stems from variable low-level moisture potentially capping peak heating via increased cloud cover; daily JMA updates on April 15 will provide refined guidance as the market nears resolution based on official station measurements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 16?
20°C 32%
19°C 17%
21°C 17%
22°C 15%
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
5%
19°C
17%
20°C
32%
21°C
17%
22°C
15%
23°C
12%
24°C or higher
9%
20°C 32%
19°C 17%
21°C 17%
22°C 15%
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
5%
19°C
17%
20°C
32%
21°C
17%
22°C
15%
23°C
12%
24°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models and global ensembles like ECMWF project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 16 near 20°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds, anchoring trader consensus at 36.5% implied probability for that outcome and 24.5% for 19°C. Recent observations show April 13-14 highs around 20°C (68°F) amid mild spring conditions following a frontal passage, aligning with mid-April climatology of 18-22°C boosted by Tokyo's urban heat island effect. Uncertainty stems from variable low-level moisture potentially capping peak heating via increased cloud cover; daily JMA updates on April 15 will provide refined guidance as the market nears resolution based on official station measurements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions