Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for New York City shows a minimum temperature on August 4 most likely near 70–72°F, driven by a passing frontal boundary, overnight cloud cover, and light southerly flow limiting radiational cooling. Ensemble spreads and slight variations in timing of clearing introduce meaningful uncertainty across the 66–75°F range, where market-implied probabilities cluster tightly. Historical August climatology (average low near 69°F) and urban heat-island effects at official stations further anchor trader focus on these bins, while the low odds below 64°F or above 77°F reflect current atmospheric stability and the narrow window for extreme deviations before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月4日纽约市最低气温？
8月4日纽约市最低气温？
62-63°F 30%
70-71°F 27%
66-67°F 20%
68-69°F 20%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
59°F or below
1%
60-61°F
9%
62-63°F
30%
64-65°F
18%
66-67°F
20%
68-69°F
20%
70-71°F
27%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
15%
78°F or higher
1%
62-63°F 30%
70-71°F 27%
66-67°F 20%
68-69°F 20%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
59°F or below
$44 交易量
1%
60-61°F
$44 交易量
9%
62-63°F
$37 交易量
30%
64-65°F
$0 交易量
18%
66-67°F
$0 交易量
20%
68-69°F
$0 交易量
20%
70-71°F
$0 交易量
27%
72-73°F
$0 交易量
18%
74-75°F
$0 交易量
19%
76-77°F
$25 交易量
15%
78°F or higher
$44 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for New York City shows a minimum temperature on August 4 most likely near 70–72°F, driven by a passing frontal boundary, overnight cloud cover, and light southerly flow limiting radiational cooling. Ensemble spreads and slight variations in timing of clearing introduce meaningful uncertainty across the 66–75°F range, where market-implied probabilities cluster tightly. Historical August climatology (average low near 69°F) and urban heat-island effects at official stations further anchor trader focus on these bins, while the low odds below 64°F or above 77°F reflect current atmospheric stability and the narrow window for extreme deviations before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ET
交易量
$193结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for New York City shows a minimum temperature on August 4 most likely near 70–72°F, driven by a passing frontal boundary, overnight cloud cover, and light southerly flow limiting radiational cooling. Ensemble spreads and slight variations in timing of clearing introduce meaningful uncertainty across the 66–75°F range, where market-implied probabilities cluster tightly. Historical August climatology (average low near 69°F) and urban heat-island effects at official stations further anchor trader focus on these bins, while the low odds below 64°F or above 77°F reflect current atmospheric stability and the narrow window for extreme deviations before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$193结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETRecent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance for New York City shows a minimum temperature on August 4 most likely near 70–72°F, driven by a passing frontal boundary, overnight cloud cover, and light southerly flow limiting radiational cooling. Ensemble spreads and slight variations in timing of clearing introduce meaningful uncertainty across the 66–75°F range, where market-implied probabilities cluster tightly. Historical August climatology (average low near 69°F) and urban heat-island effects at official stations further anchor trader focus on these bins, while the low odds below 64°F or above 77°F reflect current atmospheric stability and the narrow window for extreme deviations before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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