Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 20°C as the leading outcome at 42% implied probability for Milan's highest temperature on April 12, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs of 19–21°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Mediterranean. This setup delivers subsidence-induced clear skies, light winds under 10 km/h, and mild southerly air advection, favoring efficient surface heating after overnight lows near 12°C. Recent developments include April 11's forecasted high of 21°C—aligning with a +2–3°C monthly anomaly per Italian monitoring data—and minimal precipitation over the past week. Aeronautica Militare bulletins note possible Sunday cloud increases in northern Italy, introducing uncertainty that bolsters 19°C at 28.5%; new 00Z model runs overnight could refine odds before resolution via official Linate Airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Milan on April 12?
Highest temperature in Milan on April 12?
20°C 51%
19°C 30%
21°C 17%
18°C 3.7%
$29,760 Vol.
$29,760 Vol.
12 abr 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
4%
19°C
30%
20°C
51%
21°C
17%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
1%
20°C 51%
19°C 30%
21°C 17%
18°C 3.7%
$29,760 Vol.
$29,760 Vol.
12 abr 2026
13°C or below
$1,499 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,476 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$3,135 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$4,362 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$4,039 Vol.
1%
18°C
$2,787 Vol.
4%
19°C
$1,808 Vol.
30%
20°C
$2,077 Vol.
51%
21°C
$2,966 Vol.
17%
22°C
$3,341 Vol.
2%
23°C or higher
$2,688 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 20°C as the leading outcome at 42% implied probability for Milan's highest temperature on April 12, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs of 19–21°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Mediterranean. This setup delivers subsidence-induced clear skies, light winds under 10 km/h, and mild southerly air advection, favoring efficient surface heating after overnight lows near 12°C. Recent developments include April 11's forecasted high of 21°C—aligning with a +2–3°C monthly anomaly per Italian monitoring data—and minimal precipitation over the past week. Aeronautica Militare bulletins note possible Sunday cloud increases in northern Italy, introducing uncertainty that bolsters 19°C at 28.5%; new 00Z model runs overnight could refine odds before resolution via official Linate Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$29,760Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 20°C as the leading outcome at 42% implied probability for Milan's highest temperature on April 12, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs of 19–21°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Mediterranean. This setup delivers subsidence-induced clear skies, light winds under 10 km/h, and mild southerly air advection, favoring efficient surface heating after overnight lows near 12°C. Recent developments include April 11's forecasted high of 21°C—aligning with a +2–3°C monthly anomaly per Italian monitoring data—and minimal precipitation over the past week. Aeronautica Militare bulletins note possible Sunday cloud increases in northern Italy, introducing uncertainty that bolsters 19°C at 28.5%; new 00Z model runs overnight could refine odds before resolution via official Linate Airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$29,760Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 20°C as the leading outcome at 42% implied probability for Milan's highest temperature on April 12, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs of 19–21°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Mediterranean. This setup delivers subsidence-induced clear skies, light winds under 10 km/h, and mild southerly air advection, favoring efficient surface heating after overnight lows near 12°C. Recent developments include April 11's forecasted high of 21°C—aligning with a +2–3°C monthly anomaly per Italian monitoring data—and minimal precipitation over the past week. Aeronautica Militare bulletins note possible Sunday cloud increases in northern Italy, introducing uncertainty that bolsters 19°C at 28.5%; new 00Z model runs overnight could refine odds before resolution via official Linate Airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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